Moving Manny

With the Red Sox approaching the final furlong in their race to win the American League Eastern Division crown, it may seem somewhat odd to start hypothesizing about what may or may not come to be in the off-season.

Many in Red Sox Nation are wringing their hands in angst as the Red Sox lost two of three to the Yankees over the weekend and then dropped the first game of a three-set at Toronto on Monday night. Undoubtedly, my buddy O'Brien has been ducking annoying emails from his buddy, and Yankee fan, Lippy, which gleefully proclaim the resurgence of the Bronx Bombers in the AL East chase. Meanwhile, on an almost daily basis, O'Brien asks Your Red Sox Diarist to bring back the controversial Red Sox Choke Meter, which in hindsight, looks like genius.

While all this happens, Your Red Sox Diarist, regaling in his Fantasy Baseball triumphs over the past few weeks, is busy plotting the moves the Red Sox brass should make in the hot stove season for the 2008 campaign.

While I empathize with ESPN's Bill Simmons' view that talking about your Fantasy Baseball team is like showing off your vacation photos, I believe my prowess at Fantasy Baseball gives me at least some street cred in stating the following:

1. Jacoby Ellsbury has shown since being called up from Pawtucket that he is ready for prime time next year. He is an impact player and would be comfortable in either center field or left field. Since being called back up to the Show September 1st (he was in the big leagues for 6 games in June/July and one game in mid-August), in the 15 games he has appeared he has batted .400, with 13 runs, 13 RBIs, 3 home runs, 5 stolen bases, an on-base percentage of .424 and a slugging percentage of .655.

2. Coco Crisp is a leading candidate for a gold glove this year. Although his power numbers are down from 2004 and 2005 while he was at Cleveland, he has had a consistent season, batting near his career average at .270 with 83 runs, 59 RBIs and 26 stolen basis. He has only been caught stealing once in 11 tries post-All Star break. While his trade value will be at an all-time high in this off-season, Theo Epstein & Company should allow Crisp to remain in Boston as he is an important component of the “new look Red Sox.”

3. J.D. Drew is not going anywhere unless the Red Sox are prepared to eat a substantial portion of his contract. I surmise that this would take a hefty appetite as a lot of eating would be involved: more than 10 million a year for 5 years. It would make more sense to hope that in 2008 Drew returns to his former self and bats .283, with 20 home runs and 100 RBIs.

4. If ever there was a year to move Manny, and I know this has been tried every year since 2002, this is the year to actually move him. While he is having the worst year of his career, his numbers are such that many teams around baseball would be happy to have him around. Despite missing the past two weeks with an oblique injury, Manny is batting .292, with 20 home runs and 86 RBIs (coincidentally similar to what the Red Sox expect of a normalized J.D. Drew). Getting fair value in return for trading Manny has always been an issue for the Red Sox in the past, but in this coming off-season, it should not prove to be an insurmountable stumbling block. If a team agreed to take Manny and his fully priced ticket—20 million dollars for at least next year—I suggest that the Red Sox should settle for receiving in return a back-up catcher, other utility player, or a solid left-handed set-up guy out of the bullpen.

This approach (the “take salary off our hands approach”) would free an additional 20 million dollars to be used, together with 14 million in savings obtained by not signing Curt Schilling, to resign Mike Lowell and to make a serious run at Johan Santana, both of whom are free agents this year.

While having a chance to retain Lowell and add Santana to an already formidable starting rotation would be an obvious plus, the main benefit to the team would be an outfield containing both Jacoby Ellsbury and Coco Crisp. Talk about a new look.

Lineup !! -- Single File

Opening a three game set against the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim today, Tito Francona used what seems to have been his 50th different batting lineup permutation. This is no small feat given that the Red Sox have only played 101 games thus far this year. In this Boston version of "who's up first," the Red Sox finally had rookie of the year candidate Dustin Pedroia leading-off followed by Kevin Youkilis, Big Papi and Manny Ramirez. Pedroia, who by the way has the second highest batting average on the team (Papi is 1st) and the team's third highest on base percentage (Papi and Youkilis are one and two respectively), has hit leadoff only sparingly this year and has usually been relegated to the 2nd spot in the order. The number one spot has seen at various times: Julio "Look Ma, I'm batting over .220 Now" Lugo, Coco Crisp and a somewhat ill-conceived experiment involving J.D. Drew. While Papi and Manny are regulars in the 3rd and 4th slots, Youkilis has been moved around from 2nd to 5th to 4th and anywhere else where there has been an opening in the batting order (notwithstanding that the past two years have clearly shown that Youkilis hits much better out of the number two slot and this is where he should reside for the remainder of the year). The 5th slot is usually J.D. Drew's but, with his continuing ineffectiveness, Tito should wise up and put Mike Lowell in the 5th spot (at least for now). The 5th spot is a spot where Lowell can more easily drive in runs by hitting the doubles for which he is rightly becoming renowned for. The Captain, Jason Varitek, fits nicely in the 6th or 7th spot (J.D. Drew would go into one of these spots as well) leaving Coco Crisp and Lugo for the 8th and 9th places. If anything has remained constant this year about Lugo and Crisp, it is that when these two guys get on base at the same time, they usually create chaos for the other team. Let's just hope that when Tito goes out to home plate tonight to exchange lineup cards before the second game against the Angels, the lineup he used in the opening set will be the lineup he uses again today and each day going forward.