Moving Manny

With the Red Sox approaching the final furlong in their race to win the American League Eastern Division crown, it may seem somewhat odd to start hypothesizing about what may or may not come to be in the off-season.

Many in Red Sox Nation are wringing their hands in angst as the Red Sox lost two of three to the Yankees over the weekend and then dropped the first game of a three-set at Toronto on Monday night. Undoubtedly, my buddy O'Brien has been ducking annoying emails from his buddy, and Yankee fan, Lippy, which gleefully proclaim the resurgence of the Bronx Bombers in the AL East chase. Meanwhile, on an almost daily basis, O'Brien asks Your Red Sox Diarist to bring back the controversial Red Sox Choke Meter, which in hindsight, looks like genius.

While all this happens, Your Red Sox Diarist, regaling in his Fantasy Baseball triumphs over the past few weeks, is busy plotting the moves the Red Sox brass should make in the hot stove season for the 2008 campaign.

While I empathize with ESPN's Bill Simmons' view that talking about your Fantasy Baseball team is like showing off your vacation photos, I believe my prowess at Fantasy Baseball gives me at least some street cred in stating the following:

1. Jacoby Ellsbury has shown since being called up from Pawtucket that he is ready for prime time next year. He is an impact player and would be comfortable in either center field or left field. Since being called back up to the Show September 1st (he was in the big leagues for 6 games in June/July and one game in mid-August), in the 15 games he has appeared he has batted .400, with 13 runs, 13 RBIs, 3 home runs, 5 stolen bases, an on-base percentage of .424 and a slugging percentage of .655.

2. Coco Crisp is a leading candidate for a gold glove this year. Although his power numbers are down from 2004 and 2005 while he was at Cleveland, he has had a consistent season, batting near his career average at .270 with 83 runs, 59 RBIs and 26 stolen basis. He has only been caught stealing once in 11 tries post-All Star break. While his trade value will be at an all-time high in this off-season, Theo Epstein & Company should allow Crisp to remain in Boston as he is an important component of the “new look Red Sox.”

3. J.D. Drew is not going anywhere unless the Red Sox are prepared to eat a substantial portion of his contract. I surmise that this would take a hefty appetite as a lot of eating would be involved: more than 10 million a year for 5 years. It would make more sense to hope that in 2008 Drew returns to his former self and bats .283, with 20 home runs and 100 RBIs.

4. If ever there was a year to move Manny, and I know this has been tried every year since 2002, this is the year to actually move him. While he is having the worst year of his career, his numbers are such that many teams around baseball would be happy to have him around. Despite missing the past two weeks with an oblique injury, Manny is batting .292, with 20 home runs and 86 RBIs (coincidentally similar to what the Red Sox expect of a normalized J.D. Drew). Getting fair value in return for trading Manny has always been an issue for the Red Sox in the past, but in this coming off-season, it should not prove to be an insurmountable stumbling block. If a team agreed to take Manny and his fully priced ticket—20 million dollars for at least next year—I suggest that the Red Sox should settle for receiving in return a back-up catcher, other utility player, or a solid left-handed set-up guy out of the bullpen.

This approach (the “take salary off our hands approach”) would free an additional 20 million dollars to be used, together with 14 million in savings obtained by not signing Curt Schilling, to resign Mike Lowell and to make a serious run at Johan Santana, both of whom are free agents this year.

While having a chance to retain Lowell and add Santana to an already formidable starting rotation would be an obvious plus, the main benefit to the team would be an outfield containing both Jacoby Ellsbury and Coco Crisp. Talk about a new look.

Mike Lowell MVP

Tim Wakefield's (15-10) continued domination of the Tampa Bay Devil Rays (19-2 overall against the D-Rays and 9-0 at Tropicana Field) will undoubtedly be the main storyline of the Sox 6-0 win on Monday night. Manny Ramirez two RBI's against the D-Rays also deserves mention as these RBI's pushed him to 28th on the all-time list with 1,600 (Manny has 132 RBI's against the D-Rays--the most he has against any team). However, the real storyline of the night should be Mike Lowell. The Red Sox third baseman collected 2 hits, including his 17th home run, a double, 2 walks, 1 run and 3 RBI's in pacing the impressive offensive attack against Sox nemisis Scott Kazmir. Overall, Lowell is now batting .314 and leads the team with 85 RBI's.

Many times during the 2007 campaign Your Red Sox Diarist has ventured that Hideki Okajima is the Red Sox MVP. After giving the issue some serious thought, however, instead of a "gut-feel" or "knee-jerk" answer to the question, while Oki is a serious candidate for AL Rookie of the Year (along with Dustin Pedroia and Dice-K), Mike Lowell is the Red Sox MVP. Here are the reasons:

Lowell, in addition to leading the team with 85 RBI's (Manny is second with 84), is second on the team in batting average, second in slugging at .498 (Big Papi is first at .556), 3rd in home runs, first in hits, tied for second in doubles (with Manny), second in total bases and 3rd in OPS (on-base percentage plus slugging). While Lowell will not win a gold glove this year because of his uncharacteristically high 14 errors, Lowell does lead AL 3rd baseman in double plays and is 4th in the AL in assists. Both on and off the field Lowell is the consummate professional (similar to his predecessor at third base--Billy "Ballgame" Mueller) and according to press reports, is one of Tito's favorites on the team because of his professionalism, leadership and positive attitude both on and off the field.

Since Lowell is a free agent at the end of this year (he came to Boston as part of the Beckett trade--more on that in a future post), the "powers that be" on Number 4 Yawkey Way will be forced to decide in the off-season whether to let him walk or sign him to a new deal. Lowell is 33 years old and in his 9th big league season. As Lowell is on a US$9 million per year ticket, the Red Sox brass must weigh whether to re-sign Lowell or put the money to other uses--such as putting it towards a run for A-Rod, who if he decides to exercise his right to void the remaining years on his contract with the Yankees and become a free agent--is expected to command upwards of US$30 million per year in a new contract.

While some in the front office are enamored with A-Rod in a Red Sox uniform--most notably Red Sox President and CEO Larry Lucchino--there are others who believe the incremental US$21 million it would cost to land A-Rod would be better utilized enhancing other areas of the team. Your Red Sox Diarist believes that A-Rod would be a cancer in the Red Sox clubhouse and his experience with the Yankees should be a good case study for those making the decisions in the Red Sox Baseball Operations Department. To keep Mike Lowell, the Red Sox would probably need to offer him a two year contract worth US$20 million total with a club option for the 3rd year, and maybe the 4th year. The Red Sox could then take that US$21 million annual saving (plus the US$14 million saved by not re-signing Curt Schilling in the off-season--more on that in a future post as well) and make a serious run at Johan Santana, who by the way struck out 17 in 8 innings in the Twins 1-0 win over Texas on Sunday.