ALCS Game 6 Reader Mailbag

This is an actual letter received from a regular reader of Red Sox Rants from China immediately following the 12-2 Red Sox win in Game 6 win over the Cleveland Indians in the ALCS. By way of background, this reader lives in Hong Kong and is a lifelong St. Louis Cardinals fan and as well as a supporter of the Colorado Rockies (note that this dual loyalty is not in violation of Bill Simmons' Rules for Being a True Fan because of the exception provided under Rule 19).

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Dear Red Sox Diarist:

Now it gets interesting!

Huge win today for Boston. Nancy Drew finally did something positive in addition to collecting his hefty paycheck. The sun's gotta shine on every dog's ass sometime. Lugo also finally hit a ball in fair territory. Even Gagne showed he can hold a 10-run lead!

What role do you think maturity has played in this series? Sabathia, Carmona, and Perez all seem nervous and determined to throw too hard and off the plate, instead of challenging batters in the strike zone as they did successfully throughout the regular season and the Yankees series.

Beckett, of course, has been dominating. Schilling doesn't have great stuff anymore and was just fair in today's game, but the big lead gave him a huge advantage. I think a combination of youthful overexuberance and an effort to be too fine by Cleveland's pitchers and greater maturity and patience by Sox hitters plus Beckett resulted in success for the Beaneaters in Games 1, 5, and 6 (and the beginning of Game 2).

Can Dice-K stop the Tribe tomorrow? He looked confused at times in his last outing. The game is in Fenway and the Sox have the momentum, but Tito better have Beckett ready in the bullpen and keep Papelbon for a save situation, if necessary.

I still like the Rox and Sox in the World Series!

Your Faithful Correspondent

Moving Manny

With the Red Sox approaching the final furlong in their race to win the American League Eastern Division crown, it may seem somewhat odd to start hypothesizing about what may or may not come to be in the off-season.

Many in Red Sox Nation are wringing their hands in angst as the Red Sox lost two of three to the Yankees over the weekend and then dropped the first game of a three-set at Toronto on Monday night. Undoubtedly, my buddy O'Brien has been ducking annoying emails from his buddy, and Yankee fan, Lippy, which gleefully proclaim the resurgence of the Bronx Bombers in the AL East chase. Meanwhile, on an almost daily basis, O'Brien asks Your Red Sox Diarist to bring back the controversial Red Sox Choke Meter, which in hindsight, looks like genius.

While all this happens, Your Red Sox Diarist, regaling in his Fantasy Baseball triumphs over the past few weeks, is busy plotting the moves the Red Sox brass should make in the hot stove season for the 2008 campaign.

While I empathize with ESPN's Bill Simmons' view that talking about your Fantasy Baseball team is like showing off your vacation photos, I believe my prowess at Fantasy Baseball gives me at least some street cred in stating the following:

1. Jacoby Ellsbury has shown since being called up from Pawtucket that he is ready for prime time next year. He is an impact player and would be comfortable in either center field or left field. Since being called back up to the Show September 1st (he was in the big leagues for 6 games in June/July and one game in mid-August), in the 15 games he has appeared he has batted .400, with 13 runs, 13 RBIs, 3 home runs, 5 stolen bases, an on-base percentage of .424 and a slugging percentage of .655.

2. Coco Crisp is a leading candidate for a gold glove this year. Although his power numbers are down from 2004 and 2005 while he was at Cleveland, he has had a consistent season, batting near his career average at .270 with 83 runs, 59 RBIs and 26 stolen basis. He has only been caught stealing once in 11 tries post-All Star break. While his trade value will be at an all-time high in this off-season, Theo Epstein & Company should allow Crisp to remain in Boston as he is an important component of the “new look Red Sox.”

3. J.D. Drew is not going anywhere unless the Red Sox are prepared to eat a substantial portion of his contract. I surmise that this would take a hefty appetite as a lot of eating would be involved: more than 10 million a year for 5 years. It would make more sense to hope that in 2008 Drew returns to his former self and bats .283, with 20 home runs and 100 RBIs.

4. If ever there was a year to move Manny, and I know this has been tried every year since 2002, this is the year to actually move him. While he is having the worst year of his career, his numbers are such that many teams around baseball would be happy to have him around. Despite missing the past two weeks with an oblique injury, Manny is batting .292, with 20 home runs and 86 RBIs (coincidentally similar to what the Red Sox expect of a normalized J.D. Drew). Getting fair value in return for trading Manny has always been an issue for the Red Sox in the past, but in this coming off-season, it should not prove to be an insurmountable stumbling block. If a team agreed to take Manny and his fully priced ticket—20 million dollars for at least next year—I suggest that the Red Sox should settle for receiving in return a back-up catcher, other utility player, or a solid left-handed set-up guy out of the bullpen.

This approach (the “take salary off our hands approach”) would free an additional 20 million dollars to be used, together with 14 million in savings obtained by not signing Curt Schilling, to resign Mike Lowell and to make a serious run at Johan Santana, both of whom are free agents this year.

While having a chance to retain Lowell and add Santana to an already formidable starting rotation would be an obvious plus, the main benefit to the team would be an outfield containing both Jacoby Ellsbury and Coco Crisp. Talk about a new look.

Questions Remain

So the Red Sox go back to Fenway after their 10 game road trip and play host to the Baltimore Orioles this weekend while the back-in-the hunt again Yankees, fresh off of their three game sweep of the Red Sox, entertain the Tampa Bay Devil Rays in the Bronx. Presented with a golden opportunity to vanquish the Yankees for good in the American League's Eastern Division and to dent the Yankees' Wild Card quest, the Red Sox instead find themselves instead up 5 games up in the AL East race and the Yankees in first place in the Wild Card standings.

With beanballs forgotten (at least until September 14th) and the fashion police likely off to monitor woman's wear at center court at the U.S. Open, introspection demands pondering the implications of the past three days.

Will the Red Sox be in the playoffs? Although the 2007 edition of the Red Sox is to date, only a good team, not a great team, rest assured there will be baseball in the Hub come October. The Red Sox have the best record in baseball and have managed to maintain at least a four game lead over the Yankees for the past 5 months. They have one of the best, if not the best, pitching staffs in the American League. While their offense this season has been at best inconsistent and at worst lethargic, the Red Sox are in the top 3 in the American League in most of the important offensive categories. They also play Baltimore and Tampa Bay 13 more times.

Will the Yankees be in the playoffs? The Yankees are a team that knows how to get into the post-season and these past three days may point to the unwelcome truth that this year, the Yankees may be a team that is built for the post-season. They will be in the playoffs unless Seattle manages to hang tough during the next ten days--facing a fairly grueling schedule--and then manages to prevail in the wild card race because of a light schedule over their last 13 games.

Will J.D. Drew ever swing his bat? Watching this series, Your Red Sox Diarist gave up counting the amount of times J.D. Drew came up to the plate and then went back to the dugout without ever swinging his bat. Over the past three days J.D. Drew went 1-11 striking out three times, grounding into 2 double plays and stranding three runners in scoring position.

What is life like without Manny? Manny Ramirez is having the worst offensive year of his career. That said, he is batting .292 has an OBP of .385 an OPS of .880, 20 HR and 86 RBIs-offensive stats that every team in baseball would be happy to have. The past three days have once again shown that Manny is the straw that stirs the drink of the Red Sox offense and that his presence is a key to its good fortunes. It will be interesting to watch the impact Manny's continued absence will have on the team as he recovers from a strained oblique.

What would your playoff rotation be? If I am Joe Torre that is an easy question as Andy Pettitte, Roger Clemens and Chien Ming Wang were playoff caliber the past three days and would be a formidable threesome in the post-season. Terry Francona will have a more difficult time however choosing his three starters for the playoffs. The collective wisdom previously held that it would be Josh Beckett, Daisuke Matsuzaka and Curt Schilling come October, despite Tim Wakefield being the American League's co-leader in wins.. These past three days has made things more difficult. While Beckett is a lock and Schilling's good performance on Thursday (his second in a row) would seem to enhance his case, Dice-K's propensity to give up the home run complicates Tito's decision.

Are the Yankees Dice-K's Daddy? Facing the Yankees three times this season Dice-K is 2-1 with a 7.06 ERA and a WHIP of 1.41.

For what it's worth. The Yankees have won 7 of the last 9 games against the Red Sox and lead the season series 8 to 7.

Please Look After Your Health

One of the most frustrating losses of the year. Losing 2-1 to the Tampa Bay Devil Rays, the Red Sox beat themselves in dropping the final game of the three games series at Tropicana Field Wednesday night. The Sox left 14 men on base, had men on base every inning and left men on base every inning. While Dice-K Matsuzaka had another good outing (final line: 6 innings, 2 hits, 2 earned runs, 4 walks and 8 strikeouts), the big blow against him being a two run jack by B.J. Upton in the bottom of the 6th, the Red Sox offense did not do anything to help the cause. Although they won the series, the Sox will await the outcome of the Yankees game against the Angels on the west coast Wednesday night to find out if they go into their four set against the Chicago White Sox 5 or 6 games up in the AL East.

The Red Sox had a big scare in the top of the 3rd when Dustin Pedroia was hit on the left elbow by a tailing fastball thrown by D-Rays hurler Edwin Jackson. Watching the game on Tampa’s FSN, which is THE channel to watch if one is interested in fishing promos—they are so into fishing in Tampa they even interview people in the stands about upcoming fishing events during the game—you could hear the pitch crush into Pedroia's elbow with a loud crack. Pedroia stayed in the game long enough to score the Red Sox lone run but was obviously in pain on the base paths. He was replaced in the bottom of the 3rd by Alex Cora. Pedroia was taken for precautionary x-rays—which proved negative. He returned to the Red Sox bench in uniform later in the game. While he is day to day, an injury that sends Pedroia to the DL for any length of time would be potentially devastating to the Red Sox. He leads the team in batting average and has proven himself as a consistent hitter in the leadoff spot. (In essence of full disclosure, Pedroia going to the DL would also be potentially devastating to me as I own Pedroia in a mixed-league head to head fairly deep Fantasy Baseball League).

At the risk of jinxing this team, the Red Sox have been very lucky during the 2007 campaign in avoiding the injuries that have plagued other teams this year throughout both the American and National League and which also plagued the Red Sox in 2006. Although David Ortiz has been hampered throughout the year with various ailments (knee and shoulder especially), and most likely will require surgery in the off-season, Curt Schilling spent 7 weeks on the DL and Josh Beckett missed two starts because of an occlusion on a finger on his pitching hand. Additionally, Mike Timlin started the season on the DL and Brendon Donnelly went onto the DL in June and has had season ending reconstructive surgery. Only this past weekend, Dave Mirabelli was placed on the 15 day DL with a strained calf. That said, the Red Sox have been spared having a starting position player spend time on the DL. As Red Sox Nation will remember, when Schilling sat he was replaced in the rotation by Kason Gabbard who was 3-0 with Schills on the shelf. Julian Tavarez and Time Wakefield also stepped up nicely in a re-jigging of the rotation to fill Beckett's starts when he was healing. All in all, after 127 games, the Sox have been relatively healthy this year.

Curt Schilling probably said it best in an interview early on in the season when he stated that the team whose starting rotation on opening day pitched the most innings during the season would be the team who would go the farthest. He should have probably also said that the team whose starting position players spend the least amount of time on the DL during the course of the season would also be a the team that is favored to win it all.

Down and out in Anaheim

Is it just me or is everyone else also getting very nervous about the Yankees? While the Old Towne 9 still has a 6 game lead in the AL East, the folks on No. 4 Yawkey Way and their loyal subjects who comprise Red Sox Nation should be getting more than a little worried about the Bronx Bombers' surge and the Red Sox's inability to put them away for good. Because of a schedule resembling a never ending feast on such bottom-dwellers as Tampa Bay, Kansas City and other AL also-rans, the Skanks have compiled the best record in baseball since the All-Star break. Although the Sox only need to go 3 games over .500 for the remainder of the season thus forcing the Yankees to play .720 ball in order to take the division, today's loss against the Angels of Anaheim did nothing to calm the fears of an increasingly nervous Red Sox Nation. While Curt Schilling is back from his 7 week hiatus, he did little to help the Sox win today as the Sox continued their roadtrip on the West Coast with a 4-2 loss in their first of 3 games against the Angels. Schilling's inexplicable--or should I say boneheaded--decision not to cover first base on a "sure-thing" double play in the bottom of the 4th inning directly led to two runs being scored and allowed the Angels to not only get back into, but to tie, what had been up to then a Red Sox dominated game. While there will of course be those apologists who say Schilling looked good on his return and that the Red Sox should be pleased with his addition to the rotation, I for one believe the jury is still out on whether Schilling will be able to contribute to the extent he is needed in this most critical part of the Red Sox stretch run.