Eye of the Storm

Although the Red Sox lost Wednesday 6-5 to the Tampa Bay Devil Rays and have only a 5 game lead over the Yankees going into a "must-win" end of the week 4 game series against the AL West leading Angels, things are definitely more calm then they were before the Sox took 2 of 3 from the D- Rays. While I suspect that there is calmness mainly because we are smack in the middle of the eye of the storm, this calmness is also due to the Yankees losing on Wednesday.

Because there is a 12 hour time difference between Boston and China—where Your Red Sox Diarist is scribing this blog—and the Red Sox game and the Yankees game against the Baltimore Orioles were both played during the mid-afternoon, Your Red Sox Diarist did not know the results until Thursday morning China time. While following Red Sox baseball from the Peoples Republic of China of course necessitates making certain adjustments, Your Red Sox Diarist felt that staying up until 4:30 in the morning on weekday to follow a game against Tampa Bay wasn't really a great idea.

To better understand this, let me explain how we follow games here in the Peoples Republic. To watch or listen to games live, there are several media sources available. MLB.TV (or audio), accessed from the mlb.com website, is the best option. This however requires the payment of a subscription fee. This service allows one to watch (or listen to) all games live on a computer. The NESN TV broadcast is the feed for all home games and the away broadcaster is the feed for most away games. For the audio service, the feed is the WRKO radio broadcast. Other good media sources to follow Major League Baseball in China include mlb.com's Gameday service and ESPN's mobile phone service, where one can follow a text plus graphics version of the game on a cellphone.

My buddy O'Brien, who is a somewhat senior person in the financial services industry and flies around Southeast Asia as often as most flight attendants, follows the Red Sox in a similar manner as I do. Whether in a hotel in Jakarta, on a beach in the Philippines or on a golf course in Ho Chi Min City, O'Brien is able to follow—and does follow the Red Sox as if he were living in a brownstone in the Back Bay back in the Hub. Typically, no matter where in the region O'Brien happens to be, together we dissect each game by telephone or email and generally opine on the state of Red Sox Nation. This dedication to all things Red Sox, whether in the thick of a division race or in the dog days of the Hot Stove Season, has led us at various times to planning a trip to the World Baseball Classic in Tokyo, making pilgrimages to Fenway Park and most recently, many fruitless discussions about doing a Red Sox Podcast.

The strange thing is, after O'Brien and I saw the results of Wednesday's losing efforts against the Devil Rays, we didn't have much to say. There was only a calm.

Random Tidbits

There are some interesting statistics coming out of the 5 games immediately preceding the Red Sox loss to the D-Rays on Wednesday. The Red Sox starting pitchers in those 5 games (three against Baltimore, 2 against Tampa Bay) had a combined 0.99 ERA giving up only 4 earned runs over 36.2 innings. The 5 Red Sox starters (Dice-K, Beckett, Schilling, Wakefield and Lester) had a combined WHIP of 0.77. The Red Sox bullpen on the other hand had a combined ERA of 12.16 and a combined WHIP of 2.03 over a 7.4 inning period, giving up 10 earned runs, 11 hits and 4 walks. The bullpen also gave up 2 homeruns during those 5 games while the starters gave up no home runs.

Feel Good Inc.

Owning their smallest lead in the AL East since April 24th, the Red Sox continued their must-win week Tuesday night at Fenway Park. Facing the D-Ray's Scott Kazmir, who has owned the Red Sox for longer than they care to remember, the Sox won 2-1—and did it in dramatic fashion. Mike Lowell went yard over the Coke bottles on top of the Green Monster to tie the game in the bottom of the 9th and Coco Crisp drove home the winning run in the form of Jason Varitek, who had bashed a two out ground rule double to right. Jon Lester pitched a two hitter over 7 innings in his first appearance at the Fens since overcoming non-Hodgkin's lymphoma. The victory became even better when the Yankees dropped to 5 games back after suffering a 12-0 shellacking at the hands of the Baltimore Orioles.

The night was permeated with many "feel good" themes including not only Lester's gem, but also, Eric Gagne regaining some of the form expected of him when he struck out the side in the top of the 9th with the Sox down 1-0 and Mike Timlin coming in with two outs in the top of the 8th and striking out B.J. Upton with the bases loaded.

With the win, the Sox improved to 2 of 42 in games that they are trailing going into the 9th inning. The Mother's Day Miracle against Baltimore was their only other 9th inning comeback of the year. Although the Sox have the best record in the majors, are 4th in the AL in runs scored, 2nd in on-base percentage, 3rd in RBI's and slugging and surprisingly, 2nd only to the Yankees in run-scored from the 7th inning onwards (205-193), there have been precious few late inning comeback wins like this in 2007 and therefore, the team's continued lack of offense should legitimately be cause for concern going into the stretch run.

Righting the Ship

There is somewhat more equilibrium in the world today as a 41 year old knuckleballer righted the Red Sox ship Monday night at Fenway Park. In a must-win situation part of a must-win week, Tim Wakefield was almost un-hittable for 8 innings as the Red Sox beat the Tampa Bay Devil Rays 3-0. Taking a no-no into the 7th inning, Wakefield's line at the end of the evening was a sparkling: 8 innings, 2 hits, no runs, 2 walks and 6 strikeouts. Jonathan Papelbon came in for the 9th inning and simply overpowered the Devil Rays, who also had a fine pitching performance from starter James Shields.

Earning his 28th save of the year for the second year in a row, Papelbon, who had not worked since the second game of the debacle in Baltimore this weekend, seemed to be pitching for the bullpen's honor when he struck out the first two Devil Rays he faced in the 9th inning, walked B.J. Upton on a 3-2 count and then coaxed—if throwing 97mph fastballs can be described as coaxing—former Red Sox Carlos Pena to ground out to second to end the game.

While many anxious Red Sox fans have been talked off of the ledge by Wakefield's performance, the Sox remain a precarious 4 games ahead of the continuously surging Yankees and have the AL West leading Angels coming to town for a 4 set when the Devil Rays leave at the end of the week.

Some interesting tidbits: Jonathan Papelbon has not been called on to convert a 4 out save since April 8th. Kason Gabbard (remember him, the guy who was sent to Texas as part of the Eric Gagne "trade at the deadline" package) left the game after only one pitch in the second inning of his start against Tampa Bay on Sunday because of “left forearm stiffness.” This has caused some in Texas to suspect that it is the Rangers who had gotten stiffed in the deal with the Red Sox although there are many in Red Sox Nation who would beg to differ as the Red Sox lead over the Yankees was 8 games when Gagne was acquired.

A Dearth of 20 Game Winners

In the afterglow of Josh Beckett winning his major league leading 15th game against the Orioles on Saturday afternoon August 11th in Camden Yards, it was only reasonable for Red Sox Nation to collectively ponder: Would Beckett or any other members of the Red Sox starting rotation (Dice-K or Wakefield perhaps) be 20 game winners this year? With all of the milestones being reached over the past two weeks in Major League Baseball—Tom Glavine getting his 300th win (one of only 6 left-handers to reach that mark), A-Rod getting to 500 home runs quicker than any other player and Barry Bonds belting number 756 to become the all-time home run king*-- it got me thinking not only of 20 game win possibilities but also about other baseball records and performance benchmarks that may or may not someday be equaled or bettered.

Sticking with the Orioles theme of the weekend, one achievement (which is often overlooked) is worth considering. The Baltimore Orioles of 1971 had four 20 game winners on their pitching staff. They are one of two teams to reach this mark (the 1920 Chicago Cubs being the other) and the last team ever to accomplish this. Mike Cuellar, Pat Dobson, Jim Palmer and Dave McNally, all won 20 games for the Orioles in 1971 with McNally winning 21. (Cueller was 20-9, Dobson 20-8, Palmer 20-9 and McNally 21-5). Perhaps even more impressive, the four Orioles pitchers amassed an amazing 70 complete games that season.

Call me a naysayer if you will, but it's doubtful we will see a team with four 20 game winners on its pitching staff anytime soon, if ever again. In the age of specialists, pitch-counts, high salaries (which naturally leads to players being placed on the disabled list at the first sign of any discomfort), more in-season transactions and not to mention creeping parity through the leagues, 20 game winners are becoming an increasing rarity.

In 1971, Major League Baseball had 14 twenty game winners across its 24 teams. In 2006, there were no 20 game winners across baseball's 30 teams. For the Red Sox, this year Josh Beckett projects to 21 wins (based on a 15-5 record as of this posting while Dice-K Matsuzaka and Tim Wakefield both project to 18 wins. The Anaheim Angel's John Lackey, projects to 21 wins while the Cub's Carlos Zambrano and the Indian's C. C. Sabathia—really the only other pitchers with a realistic shot at 20 wins this season—project to 19 wins. If performance equals projections, baseball will have only 2 twenty game winners in 2007, and stating the obvious, no one team in baseball will have more than one 20 game winner. That said, for the 2007 Red Sox to have a realistic chance to outlast the surging Yankees and win the AL East, their starting rotation will need to mirror very closely the accomplishments of that acclaimed Baltimore Orioles pitching staff of 1971.

The Most Painful Loss of the Season?

It is difficult, if not impossible, to identify a loss this season that was more disappointing or painful than the Red Sox 6-5 loss to the Baltimore Orioles on Friday night at Camden Yards. What began as a pitchers' dual featuring Eric Bedard and Dice-K Matsuzaka going against each other for 7 hard fought innings (the O's leading 1-0 after 7), inexplicably turned into a slugfest in the 8th inning. It was like watching a double header--two different games in one. The Red Sox began the 8th by sending 10 men to the plate--8 of them after there were already two outs--and scoring 5 runs. Wily Mo Pena got the big hit driving in the tying run on a 3-2 count. With the game seemingly wrapped up, Tito Francona turned to his vaunted bullpen, and, evidently intent on not increasing Okijima's already heavy workload, turned to recent addition Eric Gagne to close out the 8th (despite the O's having several lefties coming to bat in their bottom half of the inning). Gagne, continuing the troubles he has exhibited since he was traded to Boston, promptly handed Baltimore back the 4 run lead. In 4 appearances for Boston since the trade deadline, Gagne has given up runs in three of them and compiled a stupefying 16.20 ERA. Opposing batters are hitting .474 when Gagne pitches in a Boston uniform. Perhaps it was to avoid performances like this that the Red Sox passed on Gagne during their search for a Closer during the off-season and instead allowed him sign as a free agent with the Texas Rangers. Okijima, who has been the bullpen's workhorse to date by a wide margin, came in--too little to late--and blew only his second save of the year and earned is first loss of the year when Brian Roberts opened the 9th with a double, advanced to third on a sacrifice bunt and then scored the winning run on a sacrifice fly to Coco Crisp. Not much else to say other than---Dice-K, who gave up 4 hits, 1 run and struck out seven, has won 3 of his last 4 decisions and has only allowed 5 earned runs in the last 27 1/3 innings--oh, and the Yankees are once again 5 games back in the AL East.

Apropos of Nothing

When Kason Gabbard, and minor leaguers David Murphy and 17 year old Engel Beltre where shipped to Texas in return for a 3 month rental of reliever Eric Gagne, Red Sox Nation collectively applauded the wisdom of the deal. Without going into the pros and cons of the trade--that will be saved for another Red Sox Rant from China--and with Jon Lester struggling mightily against the Angels tonight in Anaheim (he left the game in the 4th inning with the Red Sox trailing 5-4 after throwing 93 pitches), let's take an early look at how the deal has panned-out to date.

In two starts since joining the Rangers, Gabbard is 1-1. He lasted 5.2 innings in a loss against Cleveland on August 2nd and gave up 8 hits, 3 earned runs, 1 walk and stuck out 4. On August 7th against Oakland, Gabbard got the victory while going 6 innings, giving up 5 hits, 3 earned runs, 3 walks and striking out 4.

On August 3rd, Jon Lester had a no decision in the Red Sox 7-4 loss against Seattle. Lester went 5 innings giving up 8 hits, 4 earned runs and 2 walks while striking out 4. Against the Angels tonight--the game is currently in progress--Lester was removed after 3.1 innings. He gave up 8 hits, 5 earned runs, walked 3 and stuck out 3. Both Lester and Gabbard have each given up a total of 1 home run over their past two starts.

So to bring this all together, since the trade, Gabbard is 1-1 over 11.2 innings, has given up 13 hits, 6 earned runs, 4 walks and stuck out 8. He has a 4.63 ERA since being traded. Lester has 2 no decisions over 8.1 innings, has given up 16 hits, 9 earned runs, 5 walks and stuck out 7. He has a 7.20 ERA since the trade. Almost as an afterthought, Eric Gagne has made two appearances for the Red Sox going 1 inning twice in games against Baltimore and Seattle. Against the O's in a non-save situation in the 9th inning, Gagne allowed 2 hits, 1 earned run, walked none and struck out 2. Against Seattle in the 8th inning, Gagne allowed 3 hits, 1 earned run, no walks and struck out 1. He earned a hold against Seattle.

Lineup !! -- Single File

Opening a three game set against the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim today, Tito Francona used what seems to have been his 50th different batting lineup permutation. This is no small feat given that the Red Sox have only played 101 games thus far this year. In this Boston version of "who's up first," the Red Sox finally had rookie of the year candidate Dustin Pedroia leading-off followed by Kevin Youkilis, Big Papi and Manny Ramirez. Pedroia, who by the way has the second highest batting average on the team (Papi is 1st) and the team's third highest on base percentage (Papi and Youkilis are one and two respectively), has hit leadoff only sparingly this year and has usually been relegated to the 2nd spot in the order. The number one spot has seen at various times: Julio "Look Ma, I'm batting over .220 Now" Lugo, Coco Crisp and a somewhat ill-conceived experiment involving J.D. Drew. While Papi and Manny are regulars in the 3rd and 4th slots, Youkilis has been moved around from 2nd to 5th to 4th and anywhere else where there has been an opening in the batting order (notwithstanding that the past two years have clearly shown that Youkilis hits much better out of the number two slot and this is where he should reside for the remainder of the year). The 5th slot is usually J.D. Drew's but, with his continuing ineffectiveness, Tito should wise up and put Mike Lowell in the 5th spot (at least for now). The 5th spot is a spot where Lowell can more easily drive in runs by hitting the doubles for which he is rightly becoming renowned for. The Captain, Jason Varitek, fits nicely in the 6th or 7th spot (J.D. Drew would go into one of these spots as well) leaving Coco Crisp and Lugo for the 8th and 9th places. If anything has remained constant this year about Lugo and Crisp, it is that when these two guys get on base at the same time, they usually create chaos for the other team. Let's just hope that when Tito goes out to home plate tonight to exchange lineup cards before the second game against the Angels, the lineup he used in the opening set will be the lineup he uses again today and each day going forward.