A Dearth of 20 Game Winners

In the afterglow of Josh Beckett winning his major league leading 15th game against the Orioles on Saturday afternoon August 11th in Camden Yards, it was only reasonable for Red Sox Nation to collectively ponder: Would Beckett or any other members of the Red Sox starting rotation (Dice-K or Wakefield perhaps) be 20 game winners this year? With all of the milestones being reached over the past two weeks in Major League Baseball—Tom Glavine getting his 300th win (one of only 6 left-handers to reach that mark), A-Rod getting to 500 home runs quicker than any other player and Barry Bonds belting number 756 to become the all-time home run king*-- it got me thinking not only of 20 game win possibilities but also about other baseball records and performance benchmarks that may or may not someday be equaled or bettered.

Sticking with the Orioles theme of the weekend, one achievement (which is often overlooked) is worth considering. The Baltimore Orioles of 1971 had four 20 game winners on their pitching staff. They are one of two teams to reach this mark (the 1920 Chicago Cubs being the other) and the last team ever to accomplish this. Mike Cuellar, Pat Dobson, Jim Palmer and Dave McNally, all won 20 games for the Orioles in 1971 with McNally winning 21. (Cueller was 20-9, Dobson 20-8, Palmer 20-9 and McNally 21-5). Perhaps even more impressive, the four Orioles pitchers amassed an amazing 70 complete games that season.

Call me a naysayer if you will, but it's doubtful we will see a team with four 20 game winners on its pitching staff anytime soon, if ever again. In the age of specialists, pitch-counts, high salaries (which naturally leads to players being placed on the disabled list at the first sign of any discomfort), more in-season transactions and not to mention creeping parity through the leagues, 20 game winners are becoming an increasing rarity.

In 1971, Major League Baseball had 14 twenty game winners across its 24 teams. In 2006, there were no 20 game winners across baseball's 30 teams. For the Red Sox, this year Josh Beckett projects to 21 wins (based on a 15-5 record as of this posting while Dice-K Matsuzaka and Tim Wakefield both project to 18 wins. The Anaheim Angel's John Lackey, projects to 21 wins while the Cub's Carlos Zambrano and the Indian's C. C. Sabathia—really the only other pitchers with a realistic shot at 20 wins this season—project to 19 wins. If performance equals projections, baseball will have only 2 twenty game winners in 2007, and stating the obvious, no one team in baseball will have more than one 20 game winner. That said, for the 2007 Red Sox to have a realistic chance to outlast the surging Yankees and win the AL East, their starting rotation will need to mirror very closely the accomplishments of that acclaimed Baltimore Orioles pitching staff of 1971.

Random Thoughts

Today, the day Barry Bonds broke Hank Aaron's home run record*, was a "must-win" day for the Red Sox in Anaheim and not surprisingly, Tim Wakefield was not up to task. His inconsistency has been maddening this year. The Red Sox are now 5 games up on the Yankees, their lowest cushion since May 2nd. Assuming 95 games will win the AL east, only 3 games above .500 the rest of the way should do it for the Sox but the flipside of this is that the Yankees only need to play .653 ball the rest of the way to force a tie in the AL East. The Yankees have been playing over .720 ball since the All-Star break so the division race is definitely on.

Wily Mo Pena supposedly clear waivers today and therefore any team is free to try to cut a deal for him with the Red Sox. Bobby Kielty has signed a minor league contract with the club and the contract evidently has a clause saying the deal can be voided if he is not called up to "The Show" within one week. I am not impressed. This season, Kielty, a 31-year-old switch-hitter batted .200 with three RBIs in 13 games with the A's. Kielty has a career Major League average of .255 with 52 home runs and 244 RBIs in 579 games with Minnesota, Toronto and Oakland. These numbers equate roughly to a 14 hr season with 70 RBIs and of course a .255 average. Unless the Red Sox get something good in return for Wily Mo, I for one am in favor of continuing to work with Wily Mo and not become overly concerned or enamored with Kielty. Let's not forget, the Sox have already parted with Bronson Arroyo to get Wily Mo. Also don't forget, Wily Mo's numbers were fairly decent last year--much better than Kielty's numbers project. Nonetheless, I suspect I am in the minority on this one.