Seek Truth From Facts*

The late paramount Chinese leader Deng Xiao Ping used to urge Chinese to: 实事求是 (or in its Hanyu pinyin transliteration: shí shì qiú shì). This slogan, which means“Seek Truth From Facts,” was used by Deng to set the Chinese political agenda after the death of Chairman Mao in 1977. In “Seeking Truth From Facts” Deng hoped that people of China would emancipate their minds and that “facts" and“pragmatic thinking” would be the guide for the China of the future rather than the Chinese people unswervingly adopting the thinking and practices of the past.

Your Red Sox Diarist and author of Red Sox Rants from China, believes in this Deng Xiao Ping mantra and encourages Red Sox Nation to Seek Truth From Facts. Pragmatic thinking requires Red Sox Nation to look at the facts in determining whether the Olde Towne Nine will win the American League Eastern Division for the first time since 1995. I was discussing this with my buddy O'Brien today, and I encouraged him to adopt this approach and to also explain it to his buddy, Liptak. You see Liptak, or Lippy as we are want to call him since he is a Yankee fan and loves to make his presence known through annoying emails when things are going good for the Evil Empire, which has been few and far between for the past several seasons, needs some re-education.

I have done the math and it is actually is quite simple. The facts speak for themselves.

Following the Red Sox 3-2 victory over the Baltimore Orioles on Sunday and the Yankees 6-3 win over the Kansas City Royals, the Red Sox “magic number” is reduced to 14 with 18 games remaining. The Yankees have 19 games to play and are 5 ½ games behind the Red Sox and 5 games back in the ever important loss column.

The Red Sox have six games against Tampa Bay (three home and three away), 3 games at home against the Yankees (beginning September 14th), 3 games away at Toronto and then 2 games against the Oakland A's and 4 games against the Minnesota Twins, all in the Fens.

The Yankees have 3 games at Toronto, followed by 3 games in Boston. The Yankees are then are home for 3 games against Baltimore and 4 games against Toronto. They close out the season on the road with 3 games at Tampa Bay and 3 games at Baltimore.

The Red Sox are 30-22 this season against the teams they play for their remaining 18 games while the Yankees are 26-27 against their opponents. The Red Sox have 12 home games remaining with only 6 on the road. During the 2007 season the Red Sox are 44-25 at home and 43-22 on the road. The Yankees meanwhile have only 7 home games remaining with 12 games on the road. The Yankees are 47-27 at home this year but drop to 34-35 on the road.

Boston is 9-3 against Tampa Bay, 7-8 against New York, 9-6 against Toronto, 2-4 against Oakland and 2-1 against Minnesota. On a split basis, the Red Sox are 5-1 against Tampa Bay at home and 4-2 on the road. Against Toronto they are 5-1 in Toronto. Against Oakland the Red Sox are 1-1 at home and have yet to play to play Minnesota in Boston. The Red Sox are 4-2 at home against the Yankees.

The Yankees are 6-5 against Toronto, 8-7 against Boston, 4-8 against Baltimore and 8-7 against Tampa Bay. On a split basis, the Yankees are 3-2 against Toronto at home and 3-3 on the road. They are 2-4 at home against Baltimore and 3-4 against Baltimore on the road. The Yankees are 3-3 against Tampa Bay at Tampa Bay. Against the Red Sox in Boston, the Yankees are 2-4.

For the Red Sox to claim the division crown, this is the likely scenario:

The Red Sox need to win 2 games during each 3 games series they have remaining against Tampa Bay, (one series at home, one series in Tampa Bay where, as previously mentioned they are 4-2 on the year), win 1 of 3 at Toronto, win 1 of 2 against Oakland, win 2 of 4 against Minnesota and win 1 of 3 against New York. This would give Boston a 9-9 record over their remaining 18 games, or a .500 winning percentage.

Meanwhile, even if the Yankees win 2 of 3 against Toronto, take 2 of 3 against Boston, sweep 3 from Baltimore, win 3 of 4 games against Toronto, 2 of the 3 against Tampa Bay and then close out the season with 2 of 3 against Baltimore, giving them a 14-5 record over their remaining 19 games, or a .736 winning percentage, they would still finish second in the American League Eastern Division to Boston.

For the Yankees to claim the American League East for the 12th year in a row (i.e. the “Worse Case Scenario”), the Red Sox would need to go 8-10 in their remaining 18 games and the Yankees would need to go 14-5, including a sweep of the Red Sox in Fenway Park September 14th through 16th. While this Worse Case Scenario would have been likely in 1978 and possible in 2003, the Red Sox got that monkey off their back in 2004 and it is just is not going to happen this year. The Red Sox will win the American League Eastern Division for the first time since 1995. Seek Truth From Facts.

*Let's see if Boston Globe reporter Amalie Benjamin will be able to steal this title for the headline of one of her stories today