With the Red Sox approaching the final furlong in their race to win the American League Eastern Division crown, it may seem somewhat odd to start hypothesizing about what may or may not come to be in the off-season.
Many in Red Sox Nation are wringing their hands in angst as the Red Sox lost two of three to the Yankees over the weekend and then dropped the first game of a three-set at Toronto on Monday night. Undoubtedly, my buddy O'Brien has been ducking annoying emails from his buddy, and Yankee fan, Lippy, which gleefully proclaim the resurgence of the Bronx Bombers in the AL East chase. Meanwhile, on an almost daily basis, O'Brien asks Your Red Sox Diarist to bring back the controversial Red Sox Choke Meter, which in hindsight, looks like genius.
While all this happens, Your Red Sox Diarist, regaling in his Fantasy Baseball triumphs over the past few weeks, is busy plotting the moves the Red Sox brass should make in the hot stove season for the 2008 campaign.
While I empathize with ESPN's Bill Simmons' view that talking about your Fantasy Baseball team is like showing off your vacation photos, I believe my prowess at Fantasy Baseball gives me at least some street cred in stating the following:
1. Jacoby Ellsbury has shown since being called up from Pawtucket that he is ready for prime time next year. He is an impact player and would be comfortable in either center field or left field. Since being called back up to the Show September 1st (he was in the big leagues for 6 games in June/July and one game in mid-August), in the 15 games he has appeared he has batted .400, with 13 runs, 13 RBIs, 3 home runs, 5 stolen bases, an on-base percentage of .424 and a slugging percentage of .655.
2. Coco Crisp is a leading candidate for a gold glove this year. Although his power numbers are down from 2004 and 2005 while he was at Cleveland, he has had a consistent season, batting near his career average at .270 with 83 runs, 59 RBIs and 26 stolen basis. He has only been caught stealing once in 11 tries post-All Star break. While his trade value will be at an all-time high in this off-season, Theo Epstein & Company should allow Crisp to remain in Boston as he is an important component of the “new look Red Sox.”
3. J.D. Drew is not going anywhere unless the Red Sox are prepared to eat a substantial portion of his contract. I surmise that this would take a hefty appetite as a lot of eating would be involved: more than 10 million a year for 5 years. It would make more sense to hope that in 2008 Drew returns to his former self and bats .283, with 20 home runs and 100 RBIs.
4. If ever there was a year to move Manny, and I know this has been tried every year since 2002, this is the year to actually move him. While he is having the worst year of his career, his numbers are such that many teams around baseball would be happy to have him around. Despite missing the past two weeks with an oblique injury, Manny is batting .292, with 20 home runs and 86 RBIs (coincidentally similar to what the Red Sox expect of a normalized J.D. Drew). Getting fair value in return for trading Manny has always been an issue for the Red Sox in the past, but in this coming off-season, it should not prove to be an insurmountable stumbling block. If a team agreed to take Manny and his fully priced ticket—20 million dollars for at least next year—I suggest that the Red Sox should settle for receiving in return a back-up catcher, other utility player, or a solid left-handed set-up guy out of the bullpen.
This approach (the “take salary off our hands approach”) would free an additional 20 million dollars to be used, together with 14 million in savings obtained by not signing Curt Schilling, to resign Mike Lowell and to make a serious run at Johan Santana, both of whom are free agents this year.
While having a chance to retain Lowell and add Santana to an already formidable starting rotation would be an obvious plus, the main benefit to the team would be an outfield containing both Jacoby Ellsbury and Coco Crisp. Talk about a new look.
Tuesday, September 18, 2007
Monday, September 10, 2007
Seek Truth From Facts*
The late paramount Chinese leader Deng Xiao Ping used to urge Chinese to: 实事求是 (or in its Hanyu pinyin transliteration: shí shì qiú shì). This slogan, which means“Seek Truth From Facts,” was used by Deng to set the Chinese political agenda after the death of Chairman Mao in 1977. In “Seeking Truth From Facts” Deng hoped that people of China would emancipate their minds and that “facts" and“pragmatic thinking” would be the guide for the China of the future rather than the Chinese people unswervingly adopting the thinking and practices of the past.
Your Red Sox Diarist and author of Red Sox Rants from China, believes in this Deng Xiao Ping mantra and encourages Red Sox Nation to Seek Truth From Facts. Pragmatic thinking requires Red Sox Nation to look at the facts in determining whether the Olde Towne Nine will win the American League Eastern Division for the first time since 1995. I was discussing this with my buddy O'Brien today, and I encouraged him to adopt this approach and to also explain it to his buddy, Liptak. You see Liptak, or Lippy as we are want to call him since he is a Yankee fan and loves to make his presence known through annoying emails when things are going good for the Evil Empire, which has been few and far between for the past several seasons, needs some re-education.
I have done the math and it is actually is quite simple. The facts speak for themselves.
Following the Red Sox 3-2 victory over the Baltimore Orioles on Sunday and the Yankees 6-3 win over the Kansas City Royals, the Red Sox “magic number” is reduced to 14 with 18 games remaining. The Yankees have 19 games to play and are 5 ½ games behind the Red Sox and 5 games back in the ever important loss column.
The Red Sox have six games against Tampa Bay (three home and three away), 3 games at home against the Yankees (beginning September 14th), 3 games away at Toronto and then 2 games against the Oakland A's and 4 games against the Minnesota Twins, all in the Fens.
The Yankees have 3 games at Toronto, followed by 3 games in Boston. The Yankees are then are home for 3 games against Baltimore and 4 games against Toronto. They close out the season on the road with 3 games at Tampa Bay and 3 games at Baltimore.
The Red Sox are 30-22 this season against the teams they play for their remaining 18 games while the Yankees are 26-27 against their opponents. The Red Sox have 12 home games remaining with only 6 on the road. During the 2007 season the Red Sox are 44-25 at home and 43-22 on the road. The Yankees meanwhile have only 7 home games remaining with 12 games on the road. The Yankees are 47-27 at home this year but drop to 34-35 on the road.
Boston is 9-3 against Tampa Bay, 7-8 against New York, 9-6 against Toronto, 2-4 against Oakland and 2-1 against Minnesota. On a split basis, the Red Sox are 5-1 against Tampa Bay at home and 4-2 on the road. Against Toronto they are 5-1 in Toronto. Against Oakland the Red Sox are 1-1 at home and have yet to play to play Minnesota in Boston. The Red Sox are 4-2 at home against the Yankees.
The Yankees are 6-5 against Toronto, 8-7 against Boston, 4-8 against Baltimore and 8-7 against Tampa Bay. On a split basis, the Yankees are 3-2 against Toronto at home and 3-3 on the road. They are 2-4 at home against Baltimore and 3-4 against Baltimore on the road. The Yankees are 3-3 against Tampa Bay at Tampa Bay. Against the Red Sox in Boston, the Yankees are 2-4.
For the Red Sox to claim the division crown, this is the likely scenario:
The Red Sox need to win 2 games during each 3 games series they have remaining against Tampa Bay, (one series at home, one series in Tampa Bay where, as previously mentioned they are 4-2 on the year), win 1 of 3 at Toronto, win 1 of 2 against Oakland, win 2 of 4 against Minnesota and win 1 of 3 against New York. This would give Boston a 9-9 record over their remaining 18 games, or a .500 winning percentage.
Meanwhile, even if the Yankees win 2 of 3 against Toronto, take 2 of 3 against Boston, sweep 3 from Baltimore, win 3 of 4 games against Toronto, 2 of the 3 against Tampa Bay and then close out the season with 2 of 3 against Baltimore, giving them a 14-5 record over their remaining 19 games, or a .736 winning percentage, they would still finish second in the American League Eastern Division to Boston.
For the Yankees to claim the American League East for the 12th year in a row (i.e. the “Worse Case Scenario”), the Red Sox would need to go 8-10 in their remaining 18 games and the Yankees would need to go 14-5, including a sweep of the Red Sox in Fenway Park September 14th through 16th. While this Worse Case Scenario would have been likely in 1978 and possible in 2003, the Red Sox got that monkey off their back in 2004 and it is just is not going to happen this year. The Red Sox will win the American League Eastern Division for the first time since 1995. Seek Truth From Facts.
*Let's see if Boston Globe reporter Amalie Benjamin will be able to steal this title for the headline of one of her stories today
Your Red Sox Diarist and author of Red Sox Rants from China, believes in this Deng Xiao Ping mantra and encourages Red Sox Nation to Seek Truth From Facts. Pragmatic thinking requires Red Sox Nation to look at the facts in determining whether the Olde Towne Nine will win the American League Eastern Division for the first time since 1995. I was discussing this with my buddy O'Brien today, and I encouraged him to adopt this approach and to also explain it to his buddy, Liptak. You see Liptak, or Lippy as we are want to call him since he is a Yankee fan and loves to make his presence known through annoying emails when things are going good for the Evil Empire, which has been few and far between for the past several seasons, needs some re-education.
I have done the math and it is actually is quite simple. The facts speak for themselves.
Following the Red Sox 3-2 victory over the Baltimore Orioles on Sunday and the Yankees 6-3 win over the Kansas City Royals, the Red Sox “magic number” is reduced to 14 with 18 games remaining. The Yankees have 19 games to play and are 5 ½ games behind the Red Sox and 5 games back in the ever important loss column.
The Red Sox have six games against Tampa Bay (three home and three away), 3 games at home against the Yankees (beginning September 14th), 3 games away at Toronto and then 2 games against the Oakland A's and 4 games against the Minnesota Twins, all in the Fens.
The Yankees have 3 games at Toronto, followed by 3 games in Boston. The Yankees are then are home for 3 games against Baltimore and 4 games against Toronto. They close out the season on the road with 3 games at Tampa Bay and 3 games at Baltimore.
The Red Sox are 30-22 this season against the teams they play for their remaining 18 games while the Yankees are 26-27 against their opponents. The Red Sox have 12 home games remaining with only 6 on the road. During the 2007 season the Red Sox are 44-25 at home and 43-22 on the road. The Yankees meanwhile have only 7 home games remaining with 12 games on the road. The Yankees are 47-27 at home this year but drop to 34-35 on the road.
Boston is 9-3 against Tampa Bay, 7-8 against New York, 9-6 against Toronto, 2-4 against Oakland and 2-1 against Minnesota. On a split basis, the Red Sox are 5-1 against Tampa Bay at home and 4-2 on the road. Against Toronto they are 5-1 in Toronto. Against Oakland the Red Sox are 1-1 at home and have yet to play to play Minnesota in Boston. The Red Sox are 4-2 at home against the Yankees.
The Yankees are 6-5 against Toronto, 8-7 against Boston, 4-8 against Baltimore and 8-7 against Tampa Bay. On a split basis, the Yankees are 3-2 against Toronto at home and 3-3 on the road. They are 2-4 at home against Baltimore and 3-4 against Baltimore on the road. The Yankees are 3-3 against Tampa Bay at Tampa Bay. Against the Red Sox in Boston, the Yankees are 2-4.
For the Red Sox to claim the division crown, this is the likely scenario:
The Red Sox need to win 2 games during each 3 games series they have remaining against Tampa Bay, (one series at home, one series in Tampa Bay where, as previously mentioned they are 4-2 on the year), win 1 of 3 at Toronto, win 1 of 2 against Oakland, win 2 of 4 against Minnesota and win 1 of 3 against New York. This would give Boston a 9-9 record over their remaining 18 games, or a .500 winning percentage.
Meanwhile, even if the Yankees win 2 of 3 against Toronto, take 2 of 3 against Boston, sweep 3 from Baltimore, win 3 of 4 games against Toronto, 2 of the 3 against Tampa Bay and then close out the season with 2 of 3 against Baltimore, giving them a 14-5 record over their remaining 19 games, or a .736 winning percentage, they would still finish second in the American League Eastern Division to Boston.
For the Yankees to claim the American League East for the 12th year in a row (i.e. the “Worse Case Scenario”), the Red Sox would need to go 8-10 in their remaining 18 games and the Yankees would need to go 14-5, including a sweep of the Red Sox in Fenway Park September 14th through 16th. While this Worse Case Scenario would have been likely in 1978 and possible in 2003, the Red Sox got that monkey off their back in 2004 and it is just is not going to happen this year. The Red Sox will win the American League Eastern Division for the first time since 1995. Seek Truth From Facts.
*Let's see if Boston Globe reporter Amalie Benjamin will be able to steal this title for the headline of one of her stories today
Friday, September 7, 2007
The Kids Are Alright
It was good to see the Old Towne 9 back on track tonight in Camden Yards in a 7-6 come from behind win against the Orioles, highlighted by Jason Varitek's pinch-hit game winning RBI single in the top of the ninth. This win was especially sweet as it followed an unnecessary loss on Wednesday night in Beantown against the Blue Jays with the bullpen squandering a 4-3 lead going into the 8th inning.
Over the past 7 games, the Red Sox the Kids had been getting it done for the team. First there was Clay Buchholtz's no-hitter followed by Jacoby Ellsbury, Dustin Pedroia and Jon Lester all stepping up to help the Red Sox run-off four wins in a row after the team had dropped four straight. Thursday night in Baltimore was no exception. With Wakefield gone in the fourth inning, and Kyle Synder called on to stop the bleeding through the fifth inning, Buchholtz, came in from the bullpen for the first time this year in the 6th inning with the game tied at six and promptly loaded the bases. This was Buchholtz's first appearance since he electrified Red Sox Nation with a no-hitter against the very same Orioles in Boston five days earlier. Pitching out of a jam that he created with a walk, a single and then another walk, Buchholtz got Miguel Tejada to ground into a double play and struck out Kevin Millar to end the threat. He then pitched perfect seventh and eighth innings, striking out two more in the process. Strong performances by Red Sox youngsters over the past week have been complimented by Mike Lowell, who continues his August tear into September, David Ortiz and Josh Beckett, who leads the major leagues with 17 wins after his win against Toronto on Tuesday night.
After Thursday night, the Sox lead in the AL East is back to 6 ½ games ahead of the Yankees, with the Yankees off on Thursday. The Yankees had beaten up on the seemingly hapless Seattle Mariners taking two out of three and in the process stretching their wild card lead to 3 games. It is increasingly clear that the Yankees will make the playoffs.
Your Red Sox Diarist finds this unsettling. As stated in a previous post, the Yankees are built for the playoffs. I know my buddy O'Brien takes great exception to this statement and I know he desperately hates to face the taunts of his buddies, many of whom are unfortunately Yankee fans. At risk of facing the wrath of O'Brien I suggest that: With a rotation of Chien Ming Wang, Andy Pettitte and Roger Clemens—assuming he can still pitch in October—and an offense that resembles the 1927 Murderer's Row and the 2003 Red Sox, the MFY are scary. Put all of that together with a reloaded bullpen containing Mariano Rivera and Joba Chamberlain—who is not only nasty, filthy and disgusting, but is also the real thing—you have a team that could go a long way in the post-season.
Over the past 7 games, the Red Sox the Kids had been getting it done for the team. First there was Clay Buchholtz's no-hitter followed by Jacoby Ellsbury, Dustin Pedroia and Jon Lester all stepping up to help the Red Sox run-off four wins in a row after the team had dropped four straight. Thursday night in Baltimore was no exception. With Wakefield gone in the fourth inning, and Kyle Synder called on to stop the bleeding through the fifth inning, Buchholtz, came in from the bullpen for the first time this year in the 6th inning with the game tied at six and promptly loaded the bases. This was Buchholtz's first appearance since he electrified Red Sox Nation with a no-hitter against the very same Orioles in Boston five days earlier. Pitching out of a jam that he created with a walk, a single and then another walk, Buchholtz got Miguel Tejada to ground into a double play and struck out Kevin Millar to end the threat. He then pitched perfect seventh and eighth innings, striking out two more in the process. Strong performances by Red Sox youngsters over the past week have been complimented by Mike Lowell, who continues his August tear into September, David Ortiz and Josh Beckett, who leads the major leagues with 17 wins after his win against Toronto on Tuesday night.
After Thursday night, the Sox lead in the AL East is back to 6 ½ games ahead of the Yankees, with the Yankees off on Thursday. The Yankees had beaten up on the seemingly hapless Seattle Mariners taking two out of three and in the process stretching their wild card lead to 3 games. It is increasingly clear that the Yankees will make the playoffs.
Your Red Sox Diarist finds this unsettling. As stated in a previous post, the Yankees are built for the playoffs. I know my buddy O'Brien takes great exception to this statement and I know he desperately hates to face the taunts of his buddies, many of whom are unfortunately Yankee fans. At risk of facing the wrath of O'Brien I suggest that: With a rotation of Chien Ming Wang, Andy Pettitte and Roger Clemens—assuming he can still pitch in October—and an offense that resembles the 1927 Murderer's Row and the 2003 Red Sox, the MFY are scary. Put all of that together with a reloaded bullpen containing Mariano Rivera and Joba Chamberlain—who is not only nasty, filthy and disgusting, but is also the real thing—you have a team that could go a long way in the post-season.
Monday, September 3, 2007
Mailbag
Since the Kids were getting it done this weekend in the Hub, first a no-hitter by top-rated propsect Clay Buchholtz against the Orioles on Saturday, followed by a strong performance by Jon Lester in Sunday's matinee, Your Red Sox Diarist decided it was time to open the mailbag and check-in with some of the rants of others who follow ups and downs of Red Sox Nation. The email below, from a Red Sox Rants reader in Hong Kong, sums up the state of the Nation as the team angles for its first AL East crown since 1995.****************************
Dear Red Sox Diarist,
Regarding your blog comment on former St., Louis Cardinal J.D. Drew, you should read this link http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/7151274 if you haven't already. Drew consistently disappointed Cardinals' fans during his tenure in St. Louis. He was lauded as the next Mickey Mantle and every scout, journalist, and educated follower of the Cardinals raved about his five-tool talent and considered him to be head and shoulders above Pujols. Fortunately, Larussa and Jocketty finally gave up on Drew and traded him to Atlanta with Eli Marrero for Jason Marquis, Ray King, and Adam Wainwright. Although they have now departed, Marquis and King performed reasonably well for the Redbirds and Wainwright is now the ace of the Cardinals' (admittedly awful!) pitching staff, at least until Carpenter returns next year. After briefly returning to the Cardinals' organization earlier this season, Marrero is now out of baseball. Atlanta got one decent season from Drew, Los Angeles got one decent season from him, and I'm afraid Boston now has five years of disappointment. This proves that five tools are not enough. Players also need a sixth tool -- heart.
*****************************
The contributor of this email to the Red Sox Rants mailbag, who interestingly, is a noted baseball author, also provided a somewhat sobering comparison of performances, which is faithfully reproduced below:
2007 Performance (Year to Date)
J.D. Drew: 393 at-bats, .254 batting average, 7 home runs and 46 RBIs.
Rick Ankiel: 68 at-bats, .353 batting average, 6 home runs and 19 RBIs.
While former pitcher, turned position player, Rick Ankiel's statistics are based on a small sample size, unfortunately, J.D. Drew's are based on a pretty large sample. Also, although it was in Triple-A, Ankiel hit 31 home runs and had 86 RBIs in 381 at-bats in Memphis this year before being called up by the Cardinals.
Saturday, September 1, 2007
Questions Remain
So the Red Sox go back to Fenway after their 10 game road trip and play host to the Baltimore Orioles this weekend while the back-in-the hunt again Yankees, fresh off of their three game sweep of the Red Sox, entertain the Tampa Bay Devil Rays in the Bronx. Presented with a golden opportunity to vanquish the Yankees for good in the American League's Eastern Division and to dent the Yankees' Wild Card quest, the Red Sox instead find themselves instead up 5 games up in the AL East race and the Yankees in first place in the Wild Card standings.
With beanballs forgotten (at least until September 14th) and the fashion police likely off to monitor woman's wear at center court at the U.S. Open, introspection demands pondering the implications of the past three days.
Will the Red Sox be in the playoffs? Although the 2007 edition of the Red Sox is to date, only a good team, not a great team, rest assured there will be baseball in the Hub come October. The Red Sox have the best record in baseball and have managed to maintain at least a four game lead over the Yankees for the past 5 months. They have one of the best, if not the best, pitching staffs in the American League. While their offense this season has been at best inconsistent and at worst lethargic, the Red Sox are in the top 3 in the American League in most of the important offensive categories. They also play Baltimore and Tampa Bay 13 more times.
Will the Yankees be in the playoffs? The Yankees are a team that knows how to get into the post-season and these past three days may point to the unwelcome truth that this year, the Yankees may be a team that is built for the post-season. They will be in the playoffs unless Seattle manages to hang tough during the next ten days--facing a fairly grueling schedule--and then manages to prevail in the wild card race because of a light schedule over their last 13 games.
Will J.D. Drew ever swing his bat? Watching this series, Your Red Sox Diarist gave up counting the amount of times J.D. Drew came up to the plate and then went back to the dugout without ever swinging his bat. Over the past three days J.D. Drew went 1-11 striking out three times, grounding into 2 double plays and stranding three runners in scoring position.
What is life like without Manny? Manny Ramirez is having the worst offensive year of his career. That said, he is batting .292 has an OBP of .385 an OPS of .880, 20 HR and 86 RBIs-offensive stats that every team in baseball would be happy to have. The past three days have once again shown that Manny is the straw that stirs the drink of the Red Sox offense and that his presence is a key to its good fortunes. It will be interesting to watch the impact Manny's continued absence will have on the team as he recovers from a strained oblique.
What would your playoff rotation be? If I am Joe Torre that is an easy question as Andy Pettitte, Roger Clemens and Chien Ming Wang were playoff caliber the past three days and would be a formidable threesome in the post-season. Terry Francona will have a more difficult time however choosing his three starters for the playoffs. The collective wisdom previously held that it would be Josh Beckett, Daisuke Matsuzaka and Curt Schilling come October, despite Tim Wakefield being the American League's co-leader in wins.. These past three days has made things more difficult. While Beckett is a lock and Schilling's good performance on Thursday (his second in a row) would seem to enhance his case, Dice-K's propensity to give up the home run complicates Tito's decision.
Are the Yankees Dice-K's Daddy? Facing the Yankees three times this season Dice-K is 2-1 with a 7.06 ERA and a WHIP of 1.41.
For what it's worth. The Yankees have won 7 of the last 9 games against the Red Sox and lead the season series 8 to 7.
With beanballs forgotten (at least until September 14th) and the fashion police likely off to monitor woman's wear at center court at the U.S. Open, introspection demands pondering the implications of the past three days.
Will the Red Sox be in the playoffs? Although the 2007 edition of the Red Sox is to date, only a good team, not a great team, rest assured there will be baseball in the Hub come October. The Red Sox have the best record in baseball and have managed to maintain at least a four game lead over the Yankees for the past 5 months. They have one of the best, if not the best, pitching staffs in the American League. While their offense this season has been at best inconsistent and at worst lethargic, the Red Sox are in the top 3 in the American League in most of the important offensive categories. They also play Baltimore and Tampa Bay 13 more times.
Will the Yankees be in the playoffs? The Yankees are a team that knows how to get into the post-season and these past three days may point to the unwelcome truth that this year, the Yankees may be a team that is built for the post-season. They will be in the playoffs unless Seattle manages to hang tough during the next ten days--facing a fairly grueling schedule--and then manages to prevail in the wild card race because of a light schedule over their last 13 games.
Will J.D. Drew ever swing his bat? Watching this series, Your Red Sox Diarist gave up counting the amount of times J.D. Drew came up to the plate and then went back to the dugout without ever swinging his bat. Over the past three days J.D. Drew went 1-11 striking out three times, grounding into 2 double plays and stranding three runners in scoring position.
What is life like without Manny? Manny Ramirez is having the worst offensive year of his career. That said, he is batting .292 has an OBP of .385 an OPS of .880, 20 HR and 86 RBIs-offensive stats that every team in baseball would be happy to have. The past three days have once again shown that Manny is the straw that stirs the drink of the Red Sox offense and that his presence is a key to its good fortunes. It will be interesting to watch the impact Manny's continued absence will have on the team as he recovers from a strained oblique.
What would your playoff rotation be? If I am Joe Torre that is an easy question as Andy Pettitte, Roger Clemens and Chien Ming Wang were playoff caliber the past three days and would be a formidable threesome in the post-season. Terry Francona will have a more difficult time however choosing his three starters for the playoffs. The collective wisdom previously held that it would be Josh Beckett, Daisuke Matsuzaka and Curt Schilling come October, despite Tim Wakefield being the American League's co-leader in wins.. These past three days has made things more difficult. While Beckett is a lock and Schilling's good performance on Thursday (his second in a row) would seem to enhance his case, Dice-K's propensity to give up the home run complicates Tito's decision.
Are the Yankees Dice-K's Daddy? Facing the Yankees three times this season Dice-K is 2-1 with a 7.06 ERA and a WHIP of 1.41.
For what it's worth. The Yankees have won 7 of the last 9 games against the Red Sox and lead the season series 8 to 7.
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