Which A-Rod will Show Up on Tuesday?

Your Red Sox Diarist asks which A-Rod will show up at Yankee Stadium on Tuesday?

Relaxing few days in the Bronx

It is too bad I was not watching the Red Sox play the White Sox yesterday on mlb.tv as it would have been cool to see Ozzie Guillen's head spontaneously combust when the Red Sox put 4 more runs on the board in the 5th inning of Sunday's matinee game. The Red Sox eventually won the game 11-1, and in the process tied a 58 year old Red Sox record by scoring 46 runs over a 4 game series.

I spoke to O'Brien this morning about Sunday's game and the weekend as a whole, and we agreed that one of the best things to come out of the series is that we-meaning me, O'Brien and the Red Sox-get to relax going into the 3 games against the Yankees starting Tuesday in the Bronx. Up by 7 ½ games going into Monday's off-day, no matter what the Yankees do against the Tigers on Monday (the Yankees still have a game against the Tigers on Monday), the Red Sox can come out of the 3 game set with the Yankees no worse than being 4 games up over New York in the AL East. This is where things stood last week and this is the worst case scenario. A more likely scenario is the Red Sox win 1 of 3 in the Big Apple and go back to Fenway 6 games up after an impressive 7-3 roadtrip. As expected, both managers have their pitching rotations lined up for the three games. On Tuesday, Dice-K kicks things off against Andy Pettitte, on Wednesday Josh Beckett goes against Roger Clemens-in perhaps what may prove to be the most exciting game of the series-at least pitching-wise-and on Thursday, Curt Schilling faces Chien Ming Wang.

Going into this series the Yankees know deep down that they have to sweep to remain a viable contender for the AL East division crown. The Red Sox know that they can lose three in a row and it will not really matter. By the time the Red Sox leave New York on Thursday, both teams will only have 28 games remaining in the 2007 campaign. For the first time in a very long time, the Red Sox can face off against the Yankees in August and not be overly concerned with the outcome. They can just play their game--which has earned them the best record in baseball this year. They can just relax.

Memo to Tito

Memo To: Terry Francona
From: Your Red Sox Diarist
Re: Recent Resurgence of Red Sox Offense
With a copy to: Theo Epstein

Over the past 3 games against the Chicago White Sox your offense has scored 35 runs. For this you should be congratulated. This is an average of approximately 12 runs per game. As you know, this is clearly above your season average, even though as a team you are 3rd in the American League in runs scored, 2nd in on-base percentage (OBP) and 2nd in on-base percentage plus slugging (OPS). At the risk of generalizing, I ask you to give serious consideration to my view that one of the reasons for your recent offensive surge is that your third baseman, Mike Lowell, has been batting in the number 5 spot in your batting order for the past six games (of which the Red Sox have won five).

During these games, Lowell, who as you know is my often-stated choice for Red Sox MVP for 2007, is 13 for 21, with 8 runs scored and 10 RBIs.

In case you believe that these statistics are an aberration, I have compiled the following for your information:

Batting in the 6th slot in the order, where he has had 391 at bats this season, Lowell has a batting average of .304, an OBP of .358 and OPS of .842.

In the 5th spot in the order, Lowell has had 69 at bats and is batting .464 with an OBP of .537 and an OPS of 1.276.

Compared to J.D. Drew and Kevin Youkilis, who have had the majority of the team’s at bats in the 5th spot this year (270 at bats and 129 at bats respectively), Lowell excels.

J.D. Drew has a .261 batting average and .359 OBP with only 6 home runs and an OPS of .746—both career lows.

In the 5th spot of the batting order Youkilis is only hitting .217, with an OBP of .313 and an anemic OPS of .616. When moved to the second spot however, he is hitting .299 with OBP of .398 and an OPS of .913 in 249 at bats. It is very clear from these stats that the number two spot in the order suits Youkilis well and this is where he should remain.

While you enjoy a deserved reputation as the consummate players’ manager, admirably standing up for your players during both their highs and lows, I offer that you have had enough patience with the charade that is J.D. Drew in 2007 and instead depend on your MVP, Mike Lowell, to protect the big guys in your number 3 and number 4 slots.

By copy to Theo, please consider the above in deciding whether to re-sign the 33 years old Mike Lowell to a multi-year contract or let him become a free agent in the offseason.

Swept Away

Though Jim Croce's Leroy Brown said that the South Side of Chicago was Chicago's baddest part of town, the Red Sox did all of the tail wuppin' on Friday as the Sox pulled out the brooms and swept the Chisox in their day-night doubleheader . The Red Stockings beat the White Stockings 11-3 and 10-1 and, according to the Boston Globe's Amalie Benjamin, this was the first time since a double header against Kansas City in 1957 that the Sox scored 10 runs in both games of a two-set.

It was the recently emerging offense that did the damage-along with a strong outing from Curt Schilling in game 2-allowing the Red Sox to move to a year high 27 games over .500 and increase their lead over the Yankees to 6 1/2 games as the Evil Empire lost to Detroit in dramatic fashion (a three run walk-off home run by Detroit's Carlos Guillen in the bottom of the 11th).

There was lots of good news from Chicago.

Kevin Youkilis, who had been batting only .226 since the All-Star break (compared to .328 before the break) and has a post-break OPS of .697 compared to .920 prior to the break, went a combined 4 for 7 with one home run, a double and 4 RBI's in the two games.

David Ortiz went 4-5 in the nightcap, belting his 22nd and 23rd home runs of the year and scored 3 runs to go with his 3 RBI's.

Mike Lowell continued to underline the reasons why he is the Red Sox MVP for 2007 by going 2-4 with a walk and getting two more RBI's. He leads the team with 90.

The Captain, Jason Varitek, who has struggled since the All-Star break (batting only .231), went 2 for 3 in the first game with a two run homer and 4 RBI's.

In addition to Schilling's 3 hit, 1 run performance over 6 innings in the second game, Josh Beckett won his league leading 16th game of the season going 5 2/3 innings in game 1.

Random Thoughts:

Peter Gammons had some interesting things to say in his online chat on Thursday. Gammons noted that although the Sox had the best record in baseball, they were not getting the offensive production that they expected from the 3rd, 4th and 5th spots in their batting order. The Commissioner pointed out that Manny and J.D. Drew were having the worst years of their careers. Manny's OPS of .874 was his career low and he will struggle to hit 30 home runs. J.D. Drew, with a .748 OPS and 6 home runs, is also far off his norm.

Hopefully, the offensive display in Chicago on Friday will be the spark that this team will need down the stretch and Manny, Papi and J.D. Drew will return to form in September.

Saving the Day

As the Red Sox were rained out on Thursday on Chicago's South Side and will make up the game in a double header against the White Sox on Friday (Beckett going for the Red Sox in the first game and Schilling going in the night cap), Your Red Sox Diarist thought it nice on this unscheduled off day to relay this tidbit out of Arlington, Texas yesterday.

Texas Rangers pitcher Wes Littleton was credited with a save in Texas' record breaking 30-3 rout of the Baltimore Orioles on Wednesday night. Littleton, who pitched the last three innings for the Rangers without giving up a run, earned the save even though he had a 27 run lead. He is the first pitcher ever in Major League Baseball to earn a save with a 27 run league. Littleton came into the game with the Rangers leading at that time 14-3 and gave up two hits and one walk over three innings. He was credited with the save because of a rule (Rule 10.2 in the Official Rule Book) specifying that a pitcher who pitches effectively for three innings---"effectively" being determined at the discretion of the official scorer--can be credited with a save. Evidently, the official scorer almost always credits a pitcher with a save if the pitcher pitches the last 3 innings of a game after coming into the game with a lead and the lead is maintained until the end of the game.

This is yet another good example of certain baseball statistics (i.e. saves, wins, batting average) being, at the least, over emphasized and generally overrated. More on this during the weekend.

Please Look After Your Health

One of the most frustrating losses of the year. Losing 2-1 to the Tampa Bay Devil Rays, the Red Sox beat themselves in dropping the final game of the three games series at Tropicana Field Wednesday night. The Sox left 14 men on base, had men on base every inning and left men on base every inning. While Dice-K Matsuzaka had another good outing (final line: 6 innings, 2 hits, 2 earned runs, 4 walks and 8 strikeouts), the big blow against him being a two run jack by B.J. Upton in the bottom of the 6th, the Red Sox offense did not do anything to help the cause. Although they won the series, the Sox will await the outcome of the Yankees game against the Angels on the west coast Wednesday night to find out if they go into their four set against the Chicago White Sox 5 or 6 games up in the AL East.

The Red Sox had a big scare in the top of the 3rd when Dustin Pedroia was hit on the left elbow by a tailing fastball thrown by D-Rays hurler Edwin Jackson. Watching the game on Tampa’s FSN, which is THE channel to watch if one is interested in fishing promos—they are so into fishing in Tampa they even interview people in the stands about upcoming fishing events during the game—you could hear the pitch crush into Pedroia's elbow with a loud crack. Pedroia stayed in the game long enough to score the Red Sox lone run but was obviously in pain on the base paths. He was replaced in the bottom of the 3rd by Alex Cora. Pedroia was taken for precautionary x-rays—which proved negative. He returned to the Red Sox bench in uniform later in the game. While he is day to day, an injury that sends Pedroia to the DL for any length of time would be potentially devastating to the Red Sox. He leads the team in batting average and has proven himself as a consistent hitter in the leadoff spot. (In essence of full disclosure, Pedroia going to the DL would also be potentially devastating to me as I own Pedroia in a mixed-league head to head fairly deep Fantasy Baseball League).

At the risk of jinxing this team, the Red Sox have been very lucky during the 2007 campaign in avoiding the injuries that have plagued other teams this year throughout both the American and National League and which also plagued the Red Sox in 2006. Although David Ortiz has been hampered throughout the year with various ailments (knee and shoulder especially), and most likely will require surgery in the off-season, Curt Schilling spent 7 weeks on the DL and Josh Beckett missed two starts because of an occlusion on a finger on his pitching hand. Additionally, Mike Timlin started the season on the DL and Brendon Donnelly went onto the DL in June and has had season ending reconstructive surgery. Only this past weekend, Dave Mirabelli was placed on the 15 day DL with a strained calf. That said, the Red Sox have been spared having a starting position player spend time on the DL. As Red Sox Nation will remember, when Schilling sat he was replaced in the rotation by Kason Gabbard who was 3-0 with Schills on the shelf. Julian Tavarez and Time Wakefield also stepped up nicely in a re-jigging of the rotation to fill Beckett's starts when he was healing. All in all, after 127 games, the Sox have been relatively healthy this year.

Curt Schilling probably said it best in an interview early on in the season when he stated that the team whose starting rotation on opening day pitched the most innings during the season would be the team who would go the farthest. He should have probably also said that the team whose starting position players spend the least amount of time on the DL during the course of the season would also be a the team that is favored to win it all.

Mike Lowell MVP

Tim Wakefield's (15-10) continued domination of the Tampa Bay Devil Rays (19-2 overall against the D-Rays and 9-0 at Tropicana Field) will undoubtedly be the main storyline of the Sox 6-0 win on Monday night. Manny Ramirez two RBI's against the D-Rays also deserves mention as these RBI's pushed him to 28th on the all-time list with 1,600 (Manny has 132 RBI's against the D-Rays--the most he has against any team). However, the real storyline of the night should be Mike Lowell. The Red Sox third baseman collected 2 hits, including his 17th home run, a double, 2 walks, 1 run and 3 RBI's in pacing the impressive offensive attack against Sox nemisis Scott Kazmir. Overall, Lowell is now batting .314 and leads the team with 85 RBI's.

Many times during the 2007 campaign Your Red Sox Diarist has ventured that Hideki Okajima is the Red Sox MVP. After giving the issue some serious thought, however, instead of a "gut-feel" or "knee-jerk" answer to the question, while Oki is a serious candidate for AL Rookie of the Year (along with Dustin Pedroia and Dice-K), Mike Lowell is the Red Sox MVP. Here are the reasons:

Lowell, in addition to leading the team with 85 RBI's (Manny is second with 84), is second on the team in batting average, second in slugging at .498 (Big Papi is first at .556), 3rd in home runs, first in hits, tied for second in doubles (with Manny), second in total bases and 3rd in OPS (on-base percentage plus slugging). While Lowell will not win a gold glove this year because of his uncharacteristically high 14 errors, Lowell does lead AL 3rd baseman in double plays and is 4th in the AL in assists. Both on and off the field Lowell is the consummate professional (similar to his predecessor at third base--Billy "Ballgame" Mueller) and according to press reports, is one of Tito's favorites on the team because of his professionalism, leadership and positive attitude both on and off the field.

Since Lowell is a free agent at the end of this year (he came to Boston as part of the Beckett trade--more on that in a future post), the "powers that be" on Number 4 Yawkey Way will be forced to decide in the off-season whether to let him walk or sign him to a new deal. Lowell is 33 years old and in his 9th big league season. As Lowell is on a US$9 million per year ticket, the Red Sox brass must weigh whether to re-sign Lowell or put the money to other uses--such as putting it towards a run for A-Rod, who if he decides to exercise his right to void the remaining years on his contract with the Yankees and become a free agent--is expected to command upwards of US$30 million per year in a new contract.

While some in the front office are enamored with A-Rod in a Red Sox uniform--most notably Red Sox President and CEO Larry Lucchino--there are others who believe the incremental US$21 million it would cost to land A-Rod would be better utilized enhancing other areas of the team. Your Red Sox Diarist believes that A-Rod would be a cancer in the Red Sox clubhouse and his experience with the Yankees should be a good case study for those making the decisions in the Red Sox Baseball Operations Department. To keep Mike Lowell, the Red Sox would probably need to offer him a two year contract worth US$20 million total with a club option for the 3rd year, and maybe the 4th year. The Red Sox could then take that US$21 million annual saving (plus the US$14 million saved by not re-signing Curt Schilling in the off-season--more on that in a future post as well) and make a serious run at Johan Santana, who by the way struck out 17 in 8 innings in the Twins 1-0 win over Texas on Sunday.

Olympic Baseball - Only in China

Although the Red Sox beat the Angels Saturday night at Fenway, 10-5, thanks largely in part to a David Ortiz grand salami in the bottom of the 5th inning with the Red Sox down 5-2 at that point, today I would rather write about Olympic Baseball in China. You see, today was the day I was to have a first hand look at the Beijing Olympic Baseball Stadium, where all of the Olympic baseball games will be played during the 2008 Beijing Summer Olympics. At 9:30 am sharp on a hot and humid Sunday morning, 5 hardy baseball fans piled into the car and drove about 45 minutes to the western edge of the city where the WuKeSong Culture and Sports Center was being constructed. The WuKeSong Baseball field was playing host this week to the 2007 International Baseball Tournament, which was part of the Good Luck Beijing Sporting Events leading up to the Olympics Games in 2008. Essentially, the Good Luck Beijing events are trial runs to get all the kinks out enabling everything to run smoothly when it really counts. The morning game today was Japan against France and in the evening, China was to play the Czech Republic.

According to its website, construction at the WuKeSong complex had been completed and the city of Beijing could proudly boast of 3 brand new baseball stadiums that could hold 18,000 spectators. The website also proclaimed that the stadium had been recently handed over to the Beijing Organizing Committee and it was one of the first of the Olympic venues to be ready for use.

In reality, the complex is far from complete, the only seating area for spectators being a grandstand behind home plate. There are no other seating areas at this field or elsewhere--as the two other fields are basically construction sites. Although the entrance to the stadium is right next to a subway stop, as we had stubbornly foregone public transportation, we could not avail ourselves of this convenience and instead, had to trek about one kilometer from our car (since the parking lot was also not completed).

At a cost of 20 Renminbi each, it would cost us approximately US$12 for the 5 of us to attend the game--parking included. Approaching the ticket window, we could see the scoreboard from outside and determined that the game was already in the bottom of the 3rd inning with Japan leading 1-0. We could also see that there were only 50-100 people in the stands on this Sunday morning. In an "only in China" fashion, the guy manning ticket booth told us that that the game was sold out. "How could this be?" we asked as we pointed to an almost empty grandstand. The 100-150 people milling around the entrance confirmed to us that they had been told the same thing. "Sorry no tickets, the game is sold out," even though there were thousands of empty seats. Evidently (according to the employees at the entrance to the stadium who all spoke good English and admittedly were trying to be helpful even as they were melting under the siege of hundreds of ticketless and disappointed baseball fans), the organizers of the tournament distributed thousands of complimentary tickets to Chinese companies, friends and family, colleagues, sponsors etc. and none of these persons with comped tickets bothered to show up (as they probably had no interest in baseball to begin with). This left hundreds of increasingly irritated hardcore baseball fans outside the near empty stadium, willing to pay good money for tickets but with no tickets for sale.

As the situation escalated to a near riot situation--and I am not making that up--several ticket scalpers worked the perimeter of the crowd looking to profit from the chaos. Without missing a beat, I of course I approached a scalper--he was shading looking even by usual scalper standards--and we quickly agreed on a price for the tickets. As we were about to close the deal, several police, who had been monitoring the angry crowd, approached the scalper who bolted at the first inkling of danger. The last I saw of him, he was running across a heavily trafficked road, jumping over a waist high fence across the median with Beijing's finest in hot pursuit, dissapearing into the Sunday crowds. By the way, I understand Japan won the game 4-3 in front of a sell-out crowd.

Let's Play Two Today

Saw Mike Andrews on NESN (via MLB.TV) tonight. Mike has been chairman of the Jimmy Fund, the Red Sox Official Charity, for 25 years. Andrews was in the booth with Rem Dawg and Don Orsillo as part of the Jimmy Fund Telethon which raised more than US$3 million in donations over a 24 hour period on Friday. Andrews was of course a member of the 1967 Impossible Dream Team, playing second base for the Red Sox. Even though he played 5 years for the Sox, the most memorable “Mike Andrews’ Moment” was when playing for the Oakland A’s, he committed two consecutive errors in the 12th inning of the A’s Game 2 loss to the New York Mets in the 1973 World Series. Enraged, the flamboyant and controversial owner of the A’s, Charles Finley, “fired” Andrews immediately after the game. Other A's and manager Dick Williams rallied to Andrews' defense and baseball Commissioner Bowie Kuhn intervened forcing Finley to reinstate Andrews.

Wily Modesto Pena was traded today to the Washington Nationals for a player to be named, ending his almost two year stint in Boston. Bobby Kielty will take Pena’s roster place. Wily Mo never got enough at bats in Boston and therefore, not a fair chance at becoming the power hitter he probably will be. Prior to coming to Boston, Wily Mo got regular playing time in Cincinnati and put up promising numbers, especially in terms of home runs per at bats. In 2004 he averaged one home run per every 12.92 at bats and was even better against lefties, averaging one home run per every 9.55 at bats.

Speaking to my buddy O'Brien after today's second game against the Angels, we both agreed that watching Eric Gagne come in during the 9th inning with a 5-4 lead in the night cap of the day-night doubleheader was like watching a train wreck. The Red Sox, trailing 4-1 in the bottom of the 8th, had stormed back to take a 5-4 lead only to see it quickly squandered by Gagne in the 9th. Gagne gave up 3 hits, 1 walk, 3 earned runs and ultimately the game, blowing his third save since joining the Red Sox a little more than two weeks ago. In the first game, Clay Buchholz, making his first major league start, got the win while pitching a very solid 6 innings in the Red Sox 8-4 victory. Super set-up man and rookie of the year candidate Hideki Okajima went 5 outs in the 7th and 8th innings in relief for the hold and Jonathan Papelbon got one out in the 8th and went the distance in the 9th to earn his 29th save of the season. This was the first time since April 8th that Papelbon has been called on to convert a 4 out save.

Finally, and having nothing to do with the Red Sox or baseball, embattled NFL quarterback Michael Vick, facing federal charges in relation to his alleged involvement in a dog fighting ring was sued by a South Carolina inmate for US$63 billion claiming Vick purchased missiles from Iran and was connected to Al Qaeda.

Eye of the Storm

Although the Red Sox lost Wednesday 6-5 to the Tampa Bay Devil Rays and have only a 5 game lead over the Yankees going into a "must-win" end of the week 4 game series against the AL West leading Angels, things are definitely more calm then they were before the Sox took 2 of 3 from the D- Rays. While I suspect that there is calmness mainly because we are smack in the middle of the eye of the storm, this calmness is also due to the Yankees losing on Wednesday.

Because there is a 12 hour time difference between Boston and China—where Your Red Sox Diarist is scribing this blog—and the Red Sox game and the Yankees game against the Baltimore Orioles were both played during the mid-afternoon, Your Red Sox Diarist did not know the results until Thursday morning China time. While following Red Sox baseball from the Peoples Republic of China of course necessitates making certain adjustments, Your Red Sox Diarist felt that staying up until 4:30 in the morning on weekday to follow a game against Tampa Bay wasn't really a great idea.

To better understand this, let me explain how we follow games here in the Peoples Republic. To watch or listen to games live, there are several media sources available. MLB.TV (or audio), accessed from the mlb.com website, is the best option. This however requires the payment of a subscription fee. This service allows one to watch (or listen to) all games live on a computer. The NESN TV broadcast is the feed for all home games and the away broadcaster is the feed for most away games. For the audio service, the feed is the WRKO radio broadcast. Other good media sources to follow Major League Baseball in China include mlb.com's Gameday service and ESPN's mobile phone service, where one can follow a text plus graphics version of the game on a cellphone.

My buddy O'Brien, who is a somewhat senior person in the financial services industry and flies around Southeast Asia as often as most flight attendants, follows the Red Sox in a similar manner as I do. Whether in a hotel in Jakarta, on a beach in the Philippines or on a golf course in Ho Chi Min City, O'Brien is able to follow—and does follow the Red Sox as if he were living in a brownstone in the Back Bay back in the Hub. Typically, no matter where in the region O'Brien happens to be, together we dissect each game by telephone or email and generally opine on the state of Red Sox Nation. This dedication to all things Red Sox, whether in the thick of a division race or in the dog days of the Hot Stove Season, has led us at various times to planning a trip to the World Baseball Classic in Tokyo, making pilgrimages to Fenway Park and most recently, many fruitless discussions about doing a Red Sox Podcast.

The strange thing is, after O'Brien and I saw the results of Wednesday's losing efforts against the Devil Rays, we didn't have much to say. There was only a calm.

Random Tidbits

There are some interesting statistics coming out of the 5 games immediately preceding the Red Sox loss to the D-Rays on Wednesday. The Red Sox starting pitchers in those 5 games (three against Baltimore, 2 against Tampa Bay) had a combined 0.99 ERA giving up only 4 earned runs over 36.2 innings. The 5 Red Sox starters (Dice-K, Beckett, Schilling, Wakefield and Lester) had a combined WHIP of 0.77. The Red Sox bullpen on the other hand had a combined ERA of 12.16 and a combined WHIP of 2.03 over a 7.4 inning period, giving up 10 earned runs, 11 hits and 4 walks. The bullpen also gave up 2 homeruns during those 5 games while the starters gave up no home runs.

Feel Good Inc.

Owning their smallest lead in the AL East since April 24th, the Red Sox continued their must-win week Tuesday night at Fenway Park. Facing the D-Ray's Scott Kazmir, who has owned the Red Sox for longer than they care to remember, the Sox won 2-1—and did it in dramatic fashion. Mike Lowell went yard over the Coke bottles on top of the Green Monster to tie the game in the bottom of the 9th and Coco Crisp drove home the winning run in the form of Jason Varitek, who had bashed a two out ground rule double to right. Jon Lester pitched a two hitter over 7 innings in his first appearance at the Fens since overcoming non-Hodgkin's lymphoma. The victory became even better when the Yankees dropped to 5 games back after suffering a 12-0 shellacking at the hands of the Baltimore Orioles.

The night was permeated with many "feel good" themes including not only Lester's gem, but also, Eric Gagne regaining some of the form expected of him when he struck out the side in the top of the 9th with the Sox down 1-0 and Mike Timlin coming in with two outs in the top of the 8th and striking out B.J. Upton with the bases loaded.

With the win, the Sox improved to 2 of 42 in games that they are trailing going into the 9th inning. The Mother's Day Miracle against Baltimore was their only other 9th inning comeback of the year. Although the Sox have the best record in the majors, are 4th in the AL in runs scored, 2nd in on-base percentage, 3rd in RBI's and slugging and surprisingly, 2nd only to the Yankees in run-scored from the 7th inning onwards (205-193), there have been precious few late inning comeback wins like this in 2007 and therefore, the team's continued lack of offense should legitimately be cause for concern going into the stretch run.

Righting the Ship

There is somewhat more equilibrium in the world today as a 41 year old knuckleballer righted the Red Sox ship Monday night at Fenway Park. In a must-win situation part of a must-win week, Tim Wakefield was almost un-hittable for 8 innings as the Red Sox beat the Tampa Bay Devil Rays 3-0. Taking a no-no into the 7th inning, Wakefield's line at the end of the evening was a sparkling: 8 innings, 2 hits, no runs, 2 walks and 6 strikeouts. Jonathan Papelbon came in for the 9th inning and simply overpowered the Devil Rays, who also had a fine pitching performance from starter James Shields.

Earning his 28th save of the year for the second year in a row, Papelbon, who had not worked since the second game of the debacle in Baltimore this weekend, seemed to be pitching for the bullpen's honor when he struck out the first two Devil Rays he faced in the 9th inning, walked B.J. Upton on a 3-2 count and then coaxed—if throwing 97mph fastballs can be described as coaxing—former Red Sox Carlos Pena to ground out to second to end the game.

While many anxious Red Sox fans have been talked off of the ledge by Wakefield's performance, the Sox remain a precarious 4 games ahead of the continuously surging Yankees and have the AL West leading Angels coming to town for a 4 set when the Devil Rays leave at the end of the week.

Some interesting tidbits: Jonathan Papelbon has not been called on to convert a 4 out save since April 8th. Kason Gabbard (remember him, the guy who was sent to Texas as part of the Eric Gagne "trade at the deadline" package) left the game after only one pitch in the second inning of his start against Tampa Bay on Sunday because of “left forearm stiffness.” This has caused some in Texas to suspect that it is the Rangers who had gotten stiffed in the deal with the Red Sox although there are many in Red Sox Nation who would beg to differ as the Red Sox lead over the Yankees was 8 games when Gagne was acquired.

A Dearth of 20 Game Winners

In the afterglow of Josh Beckett winning his major league leading 15th game against the Orioles on Saturday afternoon August 11th in Camden Yards, it was only reasonable for Red Sox Nation to collectively ponder: Would Beckett or any other members of the Red Sox starting rotation (Dice-K or Wakefield perhaps) be 20 game winners this year? With all of the milestones being reached over the past two weeks in Major League Baseball—Tom Glavine getting his 300th win (one of only 6 left-handers to reach that mark), A-Rod getting to 500 home runs quicker than any other player and Barry Bonds belting number 756 to become the all-time home run king*-- it got me thinking not only of 20 game win possibilities but also about other baseball records and performance benchmarks that may or may not someday be equaled or bettered.

Sticking with the Orioles theme of the weekend, one achievement (which is often overlooked) is worth considering. The Baltimore Orioles of 1971 had four 20 game winners on their pitching staff. They are one of two teams to reach this mark (the 1920 Chicago Cubs being the other) and the last team ever to accomplish this. Mike Cuellar, Pat Dobson, Jim Palmer and Dave McNally, all won 20 games for the Orioles in 1971 with McNally winning 21. (Cueller was 20-9, Dobson 20-8, Palmer 20-9 and McNally 21-5). Perhaps even more impressive, the four Orioles pitchers amassed an amazing 70 complete games that season.

Call me a naysayer if you will, but it's doubtful we will see a team with four 20 game winners on its pitching staff anytime soon, if ever again. In the age of specialists, pitch-counts, high salaries (which naturally leads to players being placed on the disabled list at the first sign of any discomfort), more in-season transactions and not to mention creeping parity through the leagues, 20 game winners are becoming an increasing rarity.

In 1971, Major League Baseball had 14 twenty game winners across its 24 teams. In 2006, there were no 20 game winners across baseball's 30 teams. For the Red Sox, this year Josh Beckett projects to 21 wins (based on a 15-5 record as of this posting while Dice-K Matsuzaka and Tim Wakefield both project to 18 wins. The Anaheim Angel's John Lackey, projects to 21 wins while the Cub's Carlos Zambrano and the Indian's C. C. Sabathia—really the only other pitchers with a realistic shot at 20 wins this season—project to 19 wins. If performance equals projections, baseball will have only 2 twenty game winners in 2007, and stating the obvious, no one team in baseball will have more than one 20 game winner. That said, for the 2007 Red Sox to have a realistic chance to outlast the surging Yankees and win the AL East, their starting rotation will need to mirror very closely the accomplishments of that acclaimed Baltimore Orioles pitching staff of 1971.

The Most Painful Loss of the Season?

It is difficult, if not impossible, to identify a loss this season that was more disappointing or painful than the Red Sox 6-5 loss to the Baltimore Orioles on Friday night at Camden Yards. What began as a pitchers' dual featuring Eric Bedard and Dice-K Matsuzaka going against each other for 7 hard fought innings (the O's leading 1-0 after 7), inexplicably turned into a slugfest in the 8th inning. It was like watching a double header--two different games in one. The Red Sox began the 8th by sending 10 men to the plate--8 of them after there were already two outs--and scoring 5 runs. Wily Mo Pena got the big hit driving in the tying run on a 3-2 count. With the game seemingly wrapped up, Tito Francona turned to his vaunted bullpen, and, evidently intent on not increasing Okijima's already heavy workload, turned to recent addition Eric Gagne to close out the 8th (despite the O's having several lefties coming to bat in their bottom half of the inning). Gagne, continuing the troubles he has exhibited since he was traded to Boston, promptly handed Baltimore back the 4 run lead. In 4 appearances for Boston since the trade deadline, Gagne has given up runs in three of them and compiled a stupefying 16.20 ERA. Opposing batters are hitting .474 when Gagne pitches in a Boston uniform. Perhaps it was to avoid performances like this that the Red Sox passed on Gagne during their search for a Closer during the off-season and instead allowed him sign as a free agent with the Texas Rangers. Okijima, who has been the bullpen's workhorse to date by a wide margin, came in--too little to late--and blew only his second save of the year and earned is first loss of the year when Brian Roberts opened the 9th with a double, advanced to third on a sacrifice bunt and then scored the winning run on a sacrifice fly to Coco Crisp. Not much else to say other than---Dice-K, who gave up 4 hits, 1 run and struck out seven, has won 3 of his last 4 decisions and has only allowed 5 earned runs in the last 27 1/3 innings--oh, and the Yankees are once again 5 games back in the AL East.

Off-Day Musings

While the Red Sox have an off-day today, Your Red Sox Diarist is not so lucky. In keeping with our mission of scribing the Most Popular Red Sox Blog on the Internet....from China, we bring you our regular off-day feature, "Off-Day Musings." In no particular order:

Bobby Kielty, the former Oakland A's 31 year old switch-hitting outfielder, played in his first Triple A games since signing a minor league contract with the Red Sox earlier this week. In a double header against the Yankees' Scanton based Triple A club, Kielty went 0 for 3 with three strikeouts in the first game and 0 for 3 with two strikeouts in the second game. With these numbers Kielty is making Wily Mo Pena look like Ted Williams.

Kielty is a career .295 hitter against lefties--this is important because he is expected to be used predominantly against lefties if called up to The Show. Wily Mo by the way is batting .291 against left-handed pitching this year.

Last night's 9-6 win over the Angels was the first time we really got to see what the bullpen Theo has assembled really looks like. I for one, was very impressed. Okijima, Gagne and Papelbon shutting the door for the 7th, 8th and 9th innings (as well as one out in the 6th inning), was relief pitching at its finest. Kudos also to Julian Tavarez and Mike Timlin. The Red Sox bullpen kept one of the best offense in baseball at bay only allowing 3 hits and one run over 6 innings. Okijima once again demonstrated why he is unquestionably the Red Sox MVP this year.

Our old friend Joel Pineiro, who was designated for assignment by the Red Sox in late July, then, somewhat surprisingly, agreed to be optioned to Pawtucket (which ultimately led to being traded to the St. Louis Cardinals at the non-waiver trading deadline for a player to be named), pitched 7 scoreless innings in his St. Louis debut giving up 4 hits, no runs, no walks and striking out 4 in a 5-0 victory over the San Diego Padres tonight in St. Louis.

Apropos of Nothing

When Kason Gabbard, and minor leaguers David Murphy and 17 year old Engel Beltre where shipped to Texas in return for a 3 month rental of reliever Eric Gagne, Red Sox Nation collectively applauded the wisdom of the deal. Without going into the pros and cons of the trade--that will be saved for another Red Sox Rant from China--and with Jon Lester struggling mightily against the Angels tonight in Anaheim (he left the game in the 4th inning with the Red Sox trailing 5-4 after throwing 93 pitches), let's take an early look at how the deal has panned-out to date.

In two starts since joining the Rangers, Gabbard is 1-1. He lasted 5.2 innings in a loss against Cleveland on August 2nd and gave up 8 hits, 3 earned runs, 1 walk and stuck out 4. On August 7th against Oakland, Gabbard got the victory while going 6 innings, giving up 5 hits, 3 earned runs, 3 walks and striking out 4.

On August 3rd, Jon Lester had a no decision in the Red Sox 7-4 loss against Seattle. Lester went 5 innings giving up 8 hits, 4 earned runs and 2 walks while striking out 4. Against the Angels tonight--the game is currently in progress--Lester was removed after 3.1 innings. He gave up 8 hits, 5 earned runs, walked 3 and stuck out 3. Both Lester and Gabbard have each given up a total of 1 home run over their past two starts.

So to bring this all together, since the trade, Gabbard is 1-1 over 11.2 innings, has given up 13 hits, 6 earned runs, 4 walks and stuck out 8. He has a 4.63 ERA since being traded. Lester has 2 no decisions over 8.1 innings, has given up 16 hits, 9 earned runs, 5 walks and stuck out 7. He has a 7.20 ERA since the trade. Almost as an afterthought, Eric Gagne has made two appearances for the Red Sox going 1 inning twice in games against Baltimore and Seattle. Against the O's in a non-save situation in the 9th inning, Gagne allowed 2 hits, 1 earned run, walked none and struck out 2. Against Seattle in the 8th inning, Gagne allowed 3 hits, 1 earned run, no walks and struck out 1. He earned a hold against Seattle.

Investment Report Card

A lot has been said in the blogosphere, on talk radio and even the print media--to the extent people still read the print media in its native format--about Theo Epstein and Co's talent evaluation quotient. I have seen many baseball aficionados going on the record to say that beginning in 2003 when the new ownership group led by John Henry took over the Boston Red Sox and Theo Epstein became the youngest General Manager to helm a major league baseball team, the track record of the Baseball Operations department at No. 4 Yawkey Way in identifying, acquiring and retaining talent has been mixed at best. Let's take a closer look.

On the positive side of the equation there are 10 players that are readily identifiable as either good pickups, acquisitions or players developed through the Red Sox farm system. They are: David Ortiz, Curt Schilling, Keith Foulke (for 2004 only), Orlando Cabrera (for 2004), Dave Roberts (the "The Stolen Base" only), Jonathan Papelbon, Hideki Okijima, Dustin Pedroia, Dice-K, Mike Lowell and Josh Beckett. On the negative side of the equation, which includes those who got away through ill-conceived trades, free agency, as well as those who have not panned out as planned are: Orlando Cabrera, Edgar Rentaria, Alex Gonzalez (15 hr for the Reds so far this year) Josh Bard, Cla Meredith, Wily Mo Pena, Freddy Sanchez, Willie Harris (hitting .328 for the Braves) and Hanley Ramirez. Finally, there are those players for whom the jury is still out. They are: Julio Lugo, Coco Crisp, John Lester--yes John Lester is still an undecided in my book--and J.D. Drew. Therefore, Theo Epstein's linescore looks something like this: approximately 10 good moves, 9 bad moves and 4 yet to be determined moves. This represents a track record of about 50/50. Not too bad of a result for your average baseball operations department but not the type of results the Red Sox Nation expects when competing year in and year out with the US$185 million payroll of the Evil Empire New York Yankees.

This, however, is not the full picture and probably not the most appropriate benchmark to evaluate the success, or lack thereof, of the Red Sox baseball operations department. A more appropriate benchmark would be a metric that is commonly used on Wall Street or elsewhere in the financial investment community. Let's pretend, for example, that Theo and Co. were either private equity investors, venture capitalists or some other type of investment fund managers. Let's also pretend that John Henry, Principle Owner of the Boston Red Sox, entrusted Theo and Co. with about US$140 million per year to invest in a "Roster of Players." Would it be correct to assume that if after 3-4 years Theo and Co. were able to report back to their "investors" that they had been successful in 50% of their investments--and really successful (read: Google type investment returns) in 3 of their total investments (Ortiz, Papelbon and Okijima), that they should be favorably compared to someone like investment guru Warren Buffett (or perhaps even legendary hedge fund manager John Henry himself)?

Random Thoughts

Today, the day Barry Bonds broke Hank Aaron's home run record*, was a "must-win" day for the Red Sox in Anaheim and not surprisingly, Tim Wakefield was not up to task. His inconsistency has been maddening this year. The Red Sox are now 5 games up on the Yankees, their lowest cushion since May 2nd. Assuming 95 games will win the AL east, only 3 games above .500 the rest of the way should do it for the Sox but the flipside of this is that the Yankees only need to play .653 ball the rest of the way to force a tie in the AL East. The Yankees have been playing over .720 ball since the All-Star break so the division race is definitely on.

Wily Mo Pena supposedly clear waivers today and therefore any team is free to try to cut a deal for him with the Red Sox. Bobby Kielty has signed a minor league contract with the club and the contract evidently has a clause saying the deal can be voided if he is not called up to "The Show" within one week. I am not impressed. This season, Kielty, a 31-year-old switch-hitter batted .200 with three RBIs in 13 games with the A's. Kielty has a career Major League average of .255 with 52 home runs and 244 RBIs in 579 games with Minnesota, Toronto and Oakland. These numbers equate roughly to a 14 hr season with 70 RBIs and of course a .255 average. Unless the Red Sox get something good in return for Wily Mo, I for one am in favor of continuing to work with Wily Mo and not become overly concerned or enamored with Kielty. Let's not forget, the Sox have already parted with Bronson Arroyo to get Wily Mo. Also don't forget, Wily Mo's numbers were fairly decent last year--much better than Kielty's numbers project. Nonetheless, I suspect I am in the minority on this one.

Lineup !! -- Single File

Opening a three game set against the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim today, Tito Francona used what seems to have been his 50th different batting lineup permutation. This is no small feat given that the Red Sox have only played 101 games thus far this year. In this Boston version of "who's up first," the Red Sox finally had rookie of the year candidate Dustin Pedroia leading-off followed by Kevin Youkilis, Big Papi and Manny Ramirez. Pedroia, who by the way has the second highest batting average on the team (Papi is 1st) and the team's third highest on base percentage (Papi and Youkilis are one and two respectively), has hit leadoff only sparingly this year and has usually been relegated to the 2nd spot in the order. The number one spot has seen at various times: Julio "Look Ma, I'm batting over .220 Now" Lugo, Coco Crisp and a somewhat ill-conceived experiment involving J.D. Drew. While Papi and Manny are regulars in the 3rd and 4th slots, Youkilis has been moved around from 2nd to 5th to 4th and anywhere else where there has been an opening in the batting order (notwithstanding that the past two years have clearly shown that Youkilis hits much better out of the number two slot and this is where he should reside for the remainder of the year). The 5th slot is usually J.D. Drew's but, with his continuing ineffectiveness, Tito should wise up and put Mike Lowell in the 5th spot (at least for now). The 5th spot is a spot where Lowell can more easily drive in runs by hitting the doubles for which he is rightly becoming renowned for. The Captain, Jason Varitek, fits nicely in the 6th or 7th spot (J.D. Drew would go into one of these spots as well) leaving Coco Crisp and Lugo for the 8th and 9th places. If anything has remained constant this year about Lugo and Crisp, it is that when these two guys get on base at the same time, they usually create chaos for the other team. Let's just hope that when Tito goes out to home plate tonight to exchange lineup cards before the second game against the Angels, the lineup he used in the opening set will be the lineup he uses again today and each day going forward.

Down and out in Anaheim

Is it just me or is everyone else also getting very nervous about the Yankees? While the Old Towne 9 still has a 6 game lead in the AL East, the folks on No. 4 Yawkey Way and their loyal subjects who comprise Red Sox Nation should be getting more than a little worried about the Bronx Bombers' surge and the Red Sox's inability to put them away for good. Because of a schedule resembling a never ending feast on such bottom-dwellers as Tampa Bay, Kansas City and other AL also-rans, the Skanks have compiled the best record in baseball since the All-Star break. Although the Sox only need to go 3 games over .500 for the remainder of the season thus forcing the Yankees to play .720 ball in order to take the division, today's loss against the Angels of Anaheim did nothing to calm the fears of an increasingly nervous Red Sox Nation. While Curt Schilling is back from his 7 week hiatus, he did little to help the Sox win today as the Sox continued their roadtrip on the West Coast with a 4-2 loss in their first of 3 games against the Angels. Schilling's inexplicable--or should I say boneheaded--decision not to cover first base on a "sure-thing" double play in the bottom of the 4th inning directly led to two runs being scored and allowed the Angels to not only get back into, but to tie, what had been up to then a Red Sox dominated game. While there will of course be those apologists who say Schilling looked good on his return and that the Red Sox should be pleased with his addition to the rotation, I for one believe the jury is still out on whether Schilling will be able to contribute to the extent he is needed in this most critical part of the Red Sox stretch run.