A Dearth of 20 Game Winners

In the afterglow of Josh Beckett winning his major league leading 15th game against the Orioles on Saturday afternoon August 11th in Camden Yards, it was only reasonable for Red Sox Nation to collectively ponder: Would Beckett or any other members of the Red Sox starting rotation (Dice-K or Wakefield perhaps) be 20 game winners this year? With all of the milestones being reached over the past two weeks in Major League Baseball—Tom Glavine getting his 300th win (one of only 6 left-handers to reach that mark), A-Rod getting to 500 home runs quicker than any other player and Barry Bonds belting number 756 to become the all-time home run king*-- it got me thinking not only of 20 game win possibilities but also about other baseball records and performance benchmarks that may or may not someday be equaled or bettered.

Sticking with the Orioles theme of the weekend, one achievement (which is often overlooked) is worth considering. The Baltimore Orioles of 1971 had four 20 game winners on their pitching staff. They are one of two teams to reach this mark (the 1920 Chicago Cubs being the other) and the last team ever to accomplish this. Mike Cuellar, Pat Dobson, Jim Palmer and Dave McNally, all won 20 games for the Orioles in 1971 with McNally winning 21. (Cueller was 20-9, Dobson 20-8, Palmer 20-9 and McNally 21-5). Perhaps even more impressive, the four Orioles pitchers amassed an amazing 70 complete games that season.

Call me a naysayer if you will, but it's doubtful we will see a team with four 20 game winners on its pitching staff anytime soon, if ever again. In the age of specialists, pitch-counts, high salaries (which naturally leads to players being placed on the disabled list at the first sign of any discomfort), more in-season transactions and not to mention creeping parity through the leagues, 20 game winners are becoming an increasing rarity.

In 1971, Major League Baseball had 14 twenty game winners across its 24 teams. In 2006, there were no 20 game winners across baseball's 30 teams. For the Red Sox, this year Josh Beckett projects to 21 wins (based on a 15-5 record as of this posting while Dice-K Matsuzaka and Tim Wakefield both project to 18 wins. The Anaheim Angel's John Lackey, projects to 21 wins while the Cub's Carlos Zambrano and the Indian's C. C. Sabathia—really the only other pitchers with a realistic shot at 20 wins this season—project to 19 wins. If performance equals projections, baseball will have only 2 twenty game winners in 2007, and stating the obvious, no one team in baseball will have more than one 20 game winner. That said, for the 2007 Red Sox to have a realistic chance to outlast the surging Yankees and win the AL East, their starting rotation will need to mirror very closely the accomplishments of that acclaimed Baltimore Orioles pitching staff of 1971.