Memo To: Terry Francona
From: Your Red Sox Diarist
Re: Recent Resurgence of Red Sox Offense
With a copy to: Theo Epstein
Over the past 3 games against the Chicago White Sox your offense has scored 35 runs. For this you should be congratulated. This is an average of approximately 12 runs per game. As you know, this is clearly above your season average, even though as a team you are 3rd in the American League in runs scored, 2nd in on-base percentage (OBP) and 2nd in on-base percentage plus slugging (OPS). At the risk of generalizing, I ask you to give serious consideration to my view that one of the reasons for your recent offensive surge is that your third baseman, Mike Lowell, has been batting in the number 5 spot in your batting order for the past six games (of which the Red Sox have won five).
During these games, Lowell, who as you know is my often-stated choice for Red Sox MVP for 2007, is 13 for 21, with 8 runs scored and 10 RBIs.
In case you believe that these statistics are an aberration, I have compiled the following for your information:
Batting in the 6th slot in the order, where he has had 391 at bats this season, Lowell has a batting average of .304, an OBP of .358 and OPS of .842.
In the 5th spot in the order, Lowell has had 69 at bats and is batting .464 with an OBP of .537 and an OPS of 1.276.
Compared to J.D. Drew and Kevin Youkilis, who have had the majority of the team’s at bats in the 5th spot this year (270 at bats and 129 at bats respectively), Lowell excels.
J.D. Drew has a .261 batting average and .359 OBP with only 6 home runs and an OPS of .746—both career lows.
In the 5th spot of the batting order Youkilis is only hitting .217, with an OBP of .313 and an anemic OPS of .616. When moved to the second spot however, he is hitting .299 with OBP of .398 and an OPS of .913 in 249 at bats. It is very clear from these stats that the number two spot in the order suits Youkilis well and this is where he should remain.
While you enjoy a deserved reputation as the consummate players’ manager, admirably standing up for your players during both their highs and lows, I offer that you have had enough patience with the charade that is J.D. Drew in 2007 and instead depend on your MVP, Mike Lowell, to protect the big guys in your number 3 and number 4 slots.
By copy to Theo, please consider the above in deciding whether to re-sign the 33 years old Mike Lowell to a multi-year contract or let him become a free agent in the offseason.
Showing posts with label Theo Epstein. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Theo Epstein. Show all posts
Sunday, August 26, 2007
Thursday, August 9, 2007
Investment Report Card
A lot has been said in the blogosphere, on talk radio and even the print media--to the extent people still read the print media in its native format--about Theo Epstein and Co's talent evaluation quotient. I have seen many baseball aficionados going on the record to say that beginning in 2003 when the new ownership group led by John Henry took over the Boston Red Sox and Theo Epstein became the youngest General Manager to helm a major league baseball team, the track record of the Baseball Operations department at No. 4 Yawkey Way in identifying, acquiring and retaining talent has been mixed at best. Let's take a closer look.
On the positive side of the equation there are 10 players that are readily identifiable as either good pickups, acquisitions or players developed through the Red Sox farm system. They are: David Ortiz, Curt Schilling, Keith Foulke (for 2004 only), Orlando Cabrera (for 2004), Dave Roberts (the "The Stolen Base" only), Jonathan Papelbon, Hideki Okijima, Dustin Pedroia, Dice-K, Mike Lowell and Josh Beckett. On the negative side of the equation, which includes those who got away through ill-conceived trades, free agency, as well as those who have not panned out as planned are: Orlando Cabrera, Edgar Rentaria, Alex Gonzalez (15 hr for the Reds so far this year) Josh Bard, Cla Meredith, Wily Mo Pena, Freddy Sanchez, Willie Harris (hitting .328 for the Braves) and Hanley Ramirez. Finally, there are those players for whom the jury is still out. They are: Julio Lugo, Coco Crisp, John Lester--yes John Lester is still an undecided in my book--and J.D. Drew. Therefore, Theo Epstein's linescore looks something like this: approximately 10 good moves, 9 bad moves and 4 yet to be determined moves. This represents a track record of about 50/50. Not too bad of a result for your average baseball operations department but not the type of results the Red Sox Nation expects when competing year in and year out with the US$185 million payroll of the Evil Empire New York Yankees.
This, however, is not the full picture and probably not the most appropriate benchmark to evaluate the success, or lack thereof, of the Red Sox baseball operations department. A more appropriate benchmark would be a metric that is commonly used on Wall Street or elsewhere in the financial investment community. Let's pretend, for example, that Theo and Co. were either private equity investors, venture capitalists or some other type of investment fund managers. Let's also pretend that John Henry, Principle Owner of the Boston Red Sox, entrusted Theo and Co. with about US$140 million per year to invest in a "Roster of Players." Would it be correct to assume that if after 3-4 years Theo and Co. were able to report back to their "investors" that they had been successful in 50% of their investments--and really successful (read: Google type investment returns) in 3 of their total investments (Ortiz, Papelbon and Okijima), that they should be favorably compared to someone like investment guru Warren Buffett (or perhaps even legendary hedge fund manager John Henry himself)?
On the positive side of the equation there are 10 players that are readily identifiable as either good pickups, acquisitions or players developed through the Red Sox farm system. They are: David Ortiz, Curt Schilling, Keith Foulke (for 2004 only), Orlando Cabrera (for 2004), Dave Roberts (the "The Stolen Base" only), Jonathan Papelbon, Hideki Okijima, Dustin Pedroia, Dice-K, Mike Lowell and Josh Beckett. On the negative side of the equation, which includes those who got away through ill-conceived trades, free agency, as well as those who have not panned out as planned are: Orlando Cabrera, Edgar Rentaria, Alex Gonzalez (15 hr for the Reds so far this year) Josh Bard, Cla Meredith, Wily Mo Pena, Freddy Sanchez, Willie Harris (hitting .328 for the Braves) and Hanley Ramirez. Finally, there are those players for whom the jury is still out. They are: Julio Lugo, Coco Crisp, John Lester--yes John Lester is still an undecided in my book--and J.D. Drew. Therefore, Theo Epstein's linescore looks something like this: approximately 10 good moves, 9 bad moves and 4 yet to be determined moves. This represents a track record of about 50/50. Not too bad of a result for your average baseball operations department but not the type of results the Red Sox Nation expects when competing year in and year out with the US$185 million payroll of the Evil Empire New York Yankees.
This, however, is not the full picture and probably not the most appropriate benchmark to evaluate the success, or lack thereof, of the Red Sox baseball operations department. A more appropriate benchmark would be a metric that is commonly used on Wall Street or elsewhere in the financial investment community. Let's pretend, for example, that Theo and Co. were either private equity investors, venture capitalists or some other type of investment fund managers. Let's also pretend that John Henry, Principle Owner of the Boston Red Sox, entrusted Theo and Co. with about US$140 million per year to invest in a "Roster of Players." Would it be correct to assume that if after 3-4 years Theo and Co. were able to report back to their "investors" that they had been successful in 50% of their investments--and really successful (read: Google type investment returns) in 3 of their total investments (Ortiz, Papelbon and Okijima), that they should be favorably compared to someone like investment guru Warren Buffett (or perhaps even legendary hedge fund manager John Henry himself)?
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