The late paramount Chinese leader Deng Xiao Ping used to urge Chinese to: 实事求是 (or in its Hanyu pinyin transliteration: shí shì qiú shì). This slogan, which means“Seek Truth From Facts,” was used by Deng to set the Chinese political agenda after the death of Chairman Mao in 1977. In “Seeking Truth From Facts” Deng hoped that people of China would emancipate their minds and that “facts" and“pragmatic thinking” would be the guide for the China of the future rather than the Chinese people unswervingly adopting the thinking and practices of the past.
Your Red Sox Diarist and author of Red Sox Rants from China, believes in this Deng Xiao Ping mantra and encourages Red Sox Nation to Seek Truth From Facts. Pragmatic thinking requires Red Sox Nation to look at the facts in determining whether the Olde Towne Nine will win the American League Eastern Division for the first time since 1995. I was discussing this with my buddy O'Brien today, and I encouraged him to adopt this approach and to also explain it to his buddy, Liptak. You see Liptak, or Lippy as we are want to call him since he is a Yankee fan and loves to make his presence known through annoying emails when things are going good for the Evil Empire, which has been few and far between for the past several seasons, needs some re-education.
I have done the math and it is actually is quite simple. The facts speak for themselves.
Following the Red Sox 3-2 victory over the Baltimore Orioles on Sunday and the Yankees 6-3 win over the Kansas City Royals, the Red Sox “magic number” is reduced to 14 with 18 games remaining. The Yankees have 19 games to play and are 5 ½ games behind the Red Sox and 5 games back in the ever important loss column.
The Red Sox have six games against Tampa Bay (three home and three away), 3 games at home against the Yankees (beginning September 14th), 3 games away at Toronto and then 2 games against the Oakland A's and 4 games against the Minnesota Twins, all in the Fens.
The Yankees have 3 games at Toronto, followed by 3 games in Boston. The Yankees are then are home for 3 games against Baltimore and 4 games against Toronto. They close out the season on the road with 3 games at Tampa Bay and 3 games at Baltimore.
The Red Sox are 30-22 this season against the teams they play for their remaining 18 games while the Yankees are 26-27 against their opponents. The Red Sox have 12 home games remaining with only 6 on the road. During the 2007 season the Red Sox are 44-25 at home and 43-22 on the road. The Yankees meanwhile have only 7 home games remaining with 12 games on the road. The Yankees are 47-27 at home this year but drop to 34-35 on the road.
Boston is 9-3 against Tampa Bay, 7-8 against New York, 9-6 against Toronto, 2-4 against Oakland and 2-1 against Minnesota. On a split basis, the Red Sox are 5-1 against Tampa Bay at home and 4-2 on the road. Against Toronto they are 5-1 in Toronto. Against Oakland the Red Sox are 1-1 at home and have yet to play to play Minnesota in Boston. The Red Sox are 4-2 at home against the Yankees.
The Yankees are 6-5 against Toronto, 8-7 against Boston, 4-8 against Baltimore and 8-7 against Tampa Bay. On a split basis, the Yankees are 3-2 against Toronto at home and 3-3 on the road. They are 2-4 at home against Baltimore and 3-4 against Baltimore on the road. The Yankees are 3-3 against Tampa Bay at Tampa Bay. Against the Red Sox in Boston, the Yankees are 2-4.
For the Red Sox to claim the division crown, this is the likely scenario:
The Red Sox need to win 2 games during each 3 games series they have remaining against Tampa Bay, (one series at home, one series in Tampa Bay where, as previously mentioned they are 4-2 on the year), win 1 of 3 at Toronto, win 1 of 2 against Oakland, win 2 of 4 against Minnesota and win 1 of 3 against New York. This would give Boston a 9-9 record over their remaining 18 games, or a .500 winning percentage.
Meanwhile, even if the Yankees win 2 of 3 against Toronto, take 2 of 3 against Boston, sweep 3 from Baltimore, win 3 of 4 games against Toronto, 2 of the 3 against Tampa Bay and then close out the season with 2 of 3 against Baltimore, giving them a 14-5 record over their remaining 19 games, or a .736 winning percentage, they would still finish second in the American League Eastern Division to Boston.
For the Yankees to claim the American League East for the 12th year in a row (i.e. the “Worse Case Scenario”), the Red Sox would need to go 8-10 in their remaining 18 games and the Yankees would need to go 14-5, including a sweep of the Red Sox in Fenway Park September 14th through 16th. While this Worse Case Scenario would have been likely in 1978 and possible in 2003, the Red Sox got that monkey off their back in 2004 and it is just is not going to happen this year. The Red Sox will win the American League Eastern Division for the first time since 1995. Seek Truth From Facts.
*Let's see if Boston Globe reporter Amalie Benjamin will be able to steal this title for the headline of one of her stories today
Showing posts with label New York Yankees. Show all posts
Showing posts with label New York Yankees. Show all posts
Monday, September 10, 2007
Friday, September 7, 2007
The Kids Are Alright
It was good to see the Old Towne 9 back on track tonight in Camden Yards in a 7-6 come from behind win against the Orioles, highlighted by Jason Varitek's pinch-hit game winning RBI single in the top of the ninth. This win was especially sweet as it followed an unnecessary loss on Wednesday night in Beantown against the Blue Jays with the bullpen squandering a 4-3 lead going into the 8th inning.
Over the past 7 games, the Red Sox the Kids had been getting it done for the team. First there was Clay Buchholtz's no-hitter followed by Jacoby Ellsbury, Dustin Pedroia and Jon Lester all stepping up to help the Red Sox run-off four wins in a row after the team had dropped four straight. Thursday night in Baltimore was no exception. With Wakefield gone in the fourth inning, and Kyle Synder called on to stop the bleeding through the fifth inning, Buchholtz, came in from the bullpen for the first time this year in the 6th inning with the game tied at six and promptly loaded the bases. This was Buchholtz's first appearance since he electrified Red Sox Nation with a no-hitter against the very same Orioles in Boston five days earlier. Pitching out of a jam that he created with a walk, a single and then another walk, Buchholtz got Miguel Tejada to ground into a double play and struck out Kevin Millar to end the threat. He then pitched perfect seventh and eighth innings, striking out two more in the process. Strong performances by Red Sox youngsters over the past week have been complimented by Mike Lowell, who continues his August tear into September, David Ortiz and Josh Beckett, who leads the major leagues with 17 wins after his win against Toronto on Tuesday night.
After Thursday night, the Sox lead in the AL East is back to 6 ½ games ahead of the Yankees, with the Yankees off on Thursday. The Yankees had beaten up on the seemingly hapless Seattle Mariners taking two out of three and in the process stretching their wild card lead to 3 games. It is increasingly clear that the Yankees will make the playoffs.
Your Red Sox Diarist finds this unsettling. As stated in a previous post, the Yankees are built for the playoffs. I know my buddy O'Brien takes great exception to this statement and I know he desperately hates to face the taunts of his buddies, many of whom are unfortunately Yankee fans. At risk of facing the wrath of O'Brien I suggest that: With a rotation of Chien Ming Wang, Andy Pettitte and Roger Clemens—assuming he can still pitch in October—and an offense that resembles the 1927 Murderer's Row and the 2003 Red Sox, the MFY are scary. Put all of that together with a reloaded bullpen containing Mariano Rivera and Joba Chamberlain—who is not only nasty, filthy and disgusting, but is also the real thing—you have a team that could go a long way in the post-season.
Over the past 7 games, the Red Sox the Kids had been getting it done for the team. First there was Clay Buchholtz's no-hitter followed by Jacoby Ellsbury, Dustin Pedroia and Jon Lester all stepping up to help the Red Sox run-off four wins in a row after the team had dropped four straight. Thursday night in Baltimore was no exception. With Wakefield gone in the fourth inning, and Kyle Synder called on to stop the bleeding through the fifth inning, Buchholtz, came in from the bullpen for the first time this year in the 6th inning with the game tied at six and promptly loaded the bases. This was Buchholtz's first appearance since he electrified Red Sox Nation with a no-hitter against the very same Orioles in Boston five days earlier. Pitching out of a jam that he created with a walk, a single and then another walk, Buchholtz got Miguel Tejada to ground into a double play and struck out Kevin Millar to end the threat. He then pitched perfect seventh and eighth innings, striking out two more in the process. Strong performances by Red Sox youngsters over the past week have been complimented by Mike Lowell, who continues his August tear into September, David Ortiz and Josh Beckett, who leads the major leagues with 17 wins after his win against Toronto on Tuesday night.
After Thursday night, the Sox lead in the AL East is back to 6 ½ games ahead of the Yankees, with the Yankees off on Thursday. The Yankees had beaten up on the seemingly hapless Seattle Mariners taking two out of three and in the process stretching their wild card lead to 3 games. It is increasingly clear that the Yankees will make the playoffs.
Your Red Sox Diarist finds this unsettling. As stated in a previous post, the Yankees are built for the playoffs. I know my buddy O'Brien takes great exception to this statement and I know he desperately hates to face the taunts of his buddies, many of whom are unfortunately Yankee fans. At risk of facing the wrath of O'Brien I suggest that: With a rotation of Chien Ming Wang, Andy Pettitte and Roger Clemens—assuming he can still pitch in October—and an offense that resembles the 1927 Murderer's Row and the 2003 Red Sox, the MFY are scary. Put all of that together with a reloaded bullpen containing Mariano Rivera and Joba Chamberlain—who is not only nasty, filthy and disgusting, but is also the real thing—you have a team that could go a long way in the post-season.
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